Crude oil's safety buffer is draining at a record pace, so the next supply shock will hit a market with far less protection. The Iran war and near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz have removed over 1 billion barrels of supply, and Morgan Stanley estimates stockpiles fell about 4.8 million barrels a day from March 1 to April 25, a record. A record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves have been pledged, and inventories are near 2018 lows. Even if Hormuz reopens, restocking will add demand. … Show more

Oil will climb and tech will get hammered, until Trump faces heat over his allies' losses and produces another we-got-a-deal headline. x.com 

Crude oil is bearish if Trump leaves the war, because any flow through Hormuz beats today's zero and would add supply and lower prices outside the strait, whatever currency Iran forces it priced in. Given offsets such as the Saudi pipeline and strategic reserves, restoring 40-50% of pre-war Hormuz crude flow would be about as good as 100% for the market, at least until May. A replier argues spot prices imply an equilibrium near $150. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Near-daily tanker attacks are keeping the oil glut away, with UKMTO issuing another maritime warning. x.com 

Crude oil faces a supply loss no policy tool can offset if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. The supply destruction is about twice the ~8 mbpd demand drop at peak COVID lockdowns, the largest demand destruction event in history, so even a COVID-style lockdown would not balance the market. The announced 400 MB US SPR release won't be enough either, because what matters is how fast reserves can be drained, about 2 mbpd. x.com 

Extreme bullishness about an oil shortage is a warning because oil has tended to return to around $50 within 12-18 months after such talk. Calls for a 'great oil repricing' appeared today, though they may not be widespread enough yet to mark the same setup. x.com  x.com 

Without a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz soon, energy inventories are weeks from bottoming, if they are not there already, which would spike oil to $150-200 and cause a deep global recession. President Trump told @nancycordes there is a draft agreement with Iran and the sides are getting a lot closer, but the Strait needs to open as soon as possible. x.com 

Crude oil is going through a real-time supply-chain repricing, not just a headline scare. Crossings are at zero, Brent is at $100, Aramco is rerouting to Sidi Kerir, and diversions around the Cape of Good Hope add weeks to delivery. x.com 

Oil will crash back down now that the Strait of Hormuz is open again, and the global economy will be alright. x.com 

All three routes for Middle East oil out of the war zone shut within 72 hours, and the Fed cannot fix that. Strait of Hormuz traffic fell from over 130 ships a day before the war to 31, then zero. Iraqi drones hit pump stations on the Saudi East-West pipeline, leaving Riyadh five to seven days of crude stored at its end. In the Red Sea, a militia seized Mokha, Perim and the Hanish Islands and bars Saudi ships. Iran only needs to wait: America votes in 49 days, Iran not until 2028. x.com  x.com  … Show more