Rawl
Crypto Investor, Macro Analysis
Super Micro Computer's turnaround looks underway as selling pressure has been exhausted. Strength showed even before the stock reclaimed its 200-day moving average, as negative news used up the last supply, shares moved to stronger hands, and positive narratives replaced old negative ones. Past management practices and alleged fraud remain a concern. x.comÂ
Big buyers likely want Super Micro at $60 at least, with new quarterly and monthly highs at $58-60 acting as the magnet. It drew a massive $30M of buy volume today, the largest in nearly a year, a $3.5M put writer sits at the July $45 strike, and the $16M July call whale still holds its full position. The six-month tweezer off long-term moving averages is intact, semiconductor ETF buying stays heavy, and a roll is expected soon. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer's strong demand outlook and revenue growth do not guarantee long-term strength. Margins, capital intensity, supply-chain risks and competition all matter alongside growth. Management has moved past earlier allegations, but sentiment still weighs on the valuation, so the risks deserve as much weight as the growth potential. x.comÂ
Super Micro's roughly 70% share of direct liquid cooling makes it essential AI plumbing, which the market is not pricing amid its scandals. Blackwell racks run over 100kW, too dense for air cooling, so every hyperscaler scaling inference needs DLC hardware. Q2 FY26 revenue rose 123% to $12.68B and FY26 guidance is at least $40B, yet it trades near 7x forward earnings versus 23x+ for peers. Cleaner governance could rerate it to $40-50; if the co-founder's indictment spreads, 30-50% downside. … Show more
Super Micro's uptrend has resumed after a volatility signal marked the July 20 bottom near $24, and the latest bullish setup can play out if two conditions hold. The stock must close above $40.1, while a close below $37.67 would invalidate it. Whale accumulation, now 83.45%, also needs to stay strong and steady. x.comÂ
Super Micro's management cannot be trusted, which is reason enough to stay away. Its claims, especially the "$60B in backlog," deserve heavy skepticism, and the company now sees fiscal Q4 revenue near the low end of its $11B-$12.5B guidance. Reliable management that turns words into action and does not engineer the books is a core requirement, and SMCI fails it. x.com x.comÂ
Strong AI demand and hyperscaler spending make the selloff a mid-cycle correction despite neocloud financing stress. Widening CCC spreads expose leveraged firms to higher borrowing costs; US competition with China supports AI buildout. The base case is a bottom in roughly 5-7 days, then stabilization and eventually a broader reversal, though some projects may fail and valuations compress. IREN, Cipher, Nebius, Applied Digital, Micron, AMD, ASML and Intel are worth gradually accumulating. x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer looks undervalued, with fair value around $48 to $50, making it a good risk-reward play on AI infrastructure. After a 15% jump in a day it is less interesting, and the risk is too high to pay full value; a sharp sell-off would be the time to build a position. Across tech hardware there is little value now, and most names would need to drop 50% or more to reach a realistic value. x.com x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer's 15.5% jump on its Nvidia AI data-center launch looks hard to buy into, because one of its co-founders was charged in an alleged $2.5B scheme to divert AI servers to China. x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer faces serious legal and regulatory fallout as its problems involve smuggling of Nvidia H-series chips, not just financial reporting. Possible outcomes include forced delisting, investor class-action lawsuits, jail time for CEO Charles Liang and FTC fines, so the stock is best avoided. x.comÂ