AllllSevens
Stock-Market Research, Institutional Trading & Market Inefficiencies
Big buyers likely want Super Micro at $60 at least, with new quarterly and monthly highs at $58-60 acting as the magnet. It drew a massive $30M of buy volume today, the largest in nearly a year, a $3.5M put writer sits at the July $45 strike, and the $16M July call whale still holds its full position. The six-month tweezer off long-term moving averages is intact, semiconductor ETF buying stays heavy, and a roll is expected soon. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Super Micro has formed a six-month tweezer bottom off its long-term moving averages after an inefficient selloff in the second half of 2025, from the same demand zone where it first went parabolic in 2024. After crashing 30% in a single day in March, the stock has reclaimed support as revenue more than doubled year on year, up 123%. More than 15% of the float is sold short. x.comÂ
Super Micro's uptrend has resumed after a volatility signal marked the July 20 bottom near $24, and the latest bullish setup can play out if two conditions hold. The stock must close above $40.1, while a close below $37.67 would invalidate it. Whale accumulation, now 83.45%, also needs to stay strong and steady. x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer should soon offer one of its best entry points, around $9-12, as a FUD narrative pushes the price lower so market makers can accumulate. Once that is done, demand should surge again and carry the stock past its previous all-time high. x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer's strong demand outlook and revenue growth do not guarantee long-term strength. Margins, capital intensity, supply-chain risks and competition all matter alongside growth. Management has moved past earlier allegations, but sentiment still weighs on the valuation, so the risks deserve as much weight as the growth potential. x.comÂ
Super Micro's roughly 70% share of direct liquid cooling makes it essential AI plumbing, which the market is not pricing amid its scandals. Blackwell racks run over 100kW, too dense for air cooling, so every hyperscaler scaling inference needs DLC hardware. Q2 FY26 revenue rose 123% to $12.68B and FY26 guidance is at least $40B, yet it trades near 7x forward earnings versus 23x+ for peers. Cleaner governance could rerate it to $40-50; if the co-founder's indictment spreads, 30-50% downside. … Show more
Super Micro Computer's turnaround looks underway as selling pressure has been exhausted. Strength showed even before the stock reclaimed its 200-day moving average, as negative news used up the last supply, shares moved to stronger hands, and positive narratives replaced old negative ones. Past management practices and alleged fraud remain a concern. x.comÂ
Semiconductor stocks have a plausible case to fall at least another 10% or so, as the pain expected before the midterms arrived earlier than most anticipated, in July. Chips are king, so their weakness drives the market. Tech should still come back with a vengeance and make this an easy buy again, as it did after COVID, DeepSeek, Liberation Day and the Iran war. x.comÂ
The recent one-day drops of 7.01% in semiconductors and 14.18% in the DRAM ETF are a favorable buying opportunity, because single-day falls of 6% or more are characteristic of bull markets, not peaks. Since 2011, forward returns one, three and six months after such drops have been positive more than 88% of the time, with one-month gains typically exceeding the initial loss. x.comÂ
Micron and SanDisk could get automatic buying support if they bounce next week, because put-side implied volatility skew is at an all-time high. That setup would add vanna and charm buying flows into options expiration. Kioxia and SK Hynix already tested their 50-day moving averages in Asia and bounced strongly. x.comÂ
Semiconductors look set for an upside breakout as the Fed hike plays out as sell the rumor, buy the news. The iShares Semiconductor ETF set its 2026 high two days after Kevin Warsh's first press conference in June, then fell about 29% in five weeks. Since the Fed hiked, it is up 5%, and the massive moves into Friday's close in many big names after the Fed meeting were telling. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Large options traders are again buying TSMC, a bullish positioning signal. x.comÂ
