Rawl
Crypto Investor, Macro Analysis
T. Rowe Price's approved Active Crypto ETF is an underpriced institutional shift toward public blockchains like Solana, Cardano and Avalanche. The $1.7 trillion manager will actively manage credit, staking yields and sector rotation across eligible assets rather than passively holding BTC. With DTCC also connecting tokenization infrastructure to public networks, the private-chain narrative is dead and public mainnets are becoming global settlement layers. x.comÂ
Digital assets including Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and XRP could see the largest crypto rotation ever, as a 1-2% shift out of global equities or a stalled AI trade would dwarf 2017 ICO and 2021 retail money. Unlike earlier retail-and-leverage cycles, spot ETFs can absorb billions, corporate treasuries hold large BTC stacks, and tokenization gives TradFi something to underwrite. The 2024-25 ETF wave proved institutions buy when the wrapper looks like a mutual fund. x.comÂ
Polkadot is another failed "Ethereum killer": its parachains never generated meaningful adoption while the DOT token kept inflating year after year. Hype over relay chains, parachains, crowdloans and slot auctions drove DOT to $54 in 2021; it now trades around $0.84, down about 99%. Investor confidence has disappeared and the ecosystem has slowly faded. x.comÂ
Bitcoin and Ethereum are cheap while US equities are overvalued, and capital flows from overvalued to undervalued assets, so the rotation into crypto has started. In May, BTC and ETH are outperforming the S&P 500, with monthly inflows of $1.51B into ETFs, $2.49B into stablecoins and $3.29B onto exchanges. The Clarity Act, a pro-Bitcoin Fed chair and a Digital Asset Reserve add support, though one final shakeout is likely before the next massive leg higher. x.com x.comÂ
Wall Street seems to be ditching legacy altcoins such as Cardano and Polkadot. Grayscale pulled its ETF filings for both after a year, right after pulling its Hedera ETF. x.comÂ
Crypto stays in a bear market for roughly the next 3-8 months, even after the SEC and CFTC jointly clarified that most crypto assets are not securities. Their interpretation explicitly names Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, XRP, Cardano, Dogecoin, Chainlink and others as non-securities, a win for clarity that should lift investor confidence. That news may spark a short-term relief rally over the coming weeks but will not cancel the bear market. The outlook is bullish over a 5-20 year horizon. x.com x.com … Show more
Cardano, Hedera and Polkadot lost a potential demand catalyst after Grayscale withdrew its ETF filings for ADA, HBAR and DOT, which is clearly not bullish. Per @ZenaXBT, the filings had sat with the SEC for about a year, and no reason was given. x.comÂ
Older-generation layer-1s such as Cardano and Polkadot lack the catalysts needed for a comeback. A post the author replies to notes Cardano has collapsed 93.4% from a $101B peak to a 5.5-year low. x.comÂ