Ondas Holdings looks set to squeeze short sellers hard, with the cost to borrow its shares jumping to 13.5% at the open. x.comÂ
Micro2Macr0
Macro Economist
Ondas has lots of room to run, with much higher revenue estimates ahead and a P/E of 29. A recent acquisition could bring in some government drone-defense spending, and the stock broke out cleanly after seven months of consolidation. It is still not as big as AeroVironment, but the risk-reward looks decent. x.comÂ
Borrow evaporated during attempts to lower Hertz's borrow rate, making a rebound tomorrow look nearly certain. IBKR is out of shares to lend again, and Schwab shows none available at a 56.5% borrow rate. Positioning for next week's earnings is likely underway. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Ondas's roughly $1B in preserved cash could be a major advantage over debt-dependent rivals if inflation keeps rates high. It can fund expansion without costly borrowing and might buy strained rivals' assets more cheaply. At a 4% realized yield, $1B would earn about $40M a year, though cash may earn less. Inflation can raise costs and higher rates pressure growth-stock valuations; equity-funded deals still must create more value per share than they give up. x.com x.comÂ
Ondas's share-funded acquisitions look very risky without a strong core business to make them work. It has raised $1.8B selling shares, yet roughly $1.4B sits in cash and short-term investments. One customer provides 55% of revenue, and $252M plus $742M in stock spent on acquisitions has not produced big revenue; continued raises and management pay add to the concern. x.comÂ
Ondas could have serious upside over the next few years if it delivers anywhere close to the 30%-40% portfolio growth its CEO Eric Brock expects. At current levels, the stock is starting to look compelling. x.comÂ
Ondas is a $12 stock trading at $7, and this dip is a generational opportunity to buy it at a discount. It posted a record $83.8M quarter, with trailing revenue up nearly 10x. x.comÂ
Ondas has no revenue of its own outside acquired companies, and further buyouts will dilute shareholders. Its 44% short float signals that the market has little faith in it. Shares are headed below $5 and back to penny-stock status before the company performs in the long run. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Ondas reported a very good quarter on May 14 and could reach $22-23 by August or September. x.comÂ
Ondas should keep investing aggressively rather than chase profitability now, as orders and backlog explode while it holds about $1.4B of cash. Q2 revenue grew about 13x year over year, new orders were $175M, another ~$105M was booked in Q3 by the report, and backlog reached ~$757M, against adjusted EBITDA of about -$50.6M. The next test is operating leverage: expenses growing slower than revenue, gross profit expanding and EBITDA losses compressing over the next few quarters. x.comÂ
Ondas's growth without margin discipline is a warning because it is so far from profitable: its EBITDA loss widened from $10.9M to $50.6M in one quarter. Revenue, orders and defense contracts are real, and guidance rose by $160M, yet the stock fell 8%. x.comÂ
New orders are strengthening Ondas's revenue visibility into 2027. It reported over $270M in orders since June 30, yet the stock is 56% below its high and down 39% this year, making it one of five names the market is seriously underestimating. x.comÂ