The closed-end fund BOT is ridiculously priced against its NAV of $7.50, with buying driven by a longtime bitcoin promoter on X. A premium to $10 or even $15 might be defensible, but not the current price. x.com 

BOT is a poor way to own private companies because buyers pay 5-6x net asset value. Investing directly at current funding rounds through a platform like MicroVentures is a better option. The only reason to buy is a bet that retail keeps pumping it, which may well happen, but it remains a bad investment. x.com 

BOT's private share issuance at 3.38x NAV is accretive rather than dilutive, because the cash stays in the fund to invest in new companies or new rounds at higher valuations. By estimate it lifted NAV from about $10.51 to $10.97 a share, and the stock has tended to bottom near each new, higher 3x NAV level. The main bet is portfolio companies raising new rounds; if Apptronik or Figure AI raised at 2x their last round, holders get all that upside. A 1x NAV price, Nvidia's entry level, won't come. … Show more

BOT risks trapping retail buyers at large gaps to its NAV, since its shares trade daily on hype and social media noise, amplified by insiders with big reach on X, while its private robotics holdings sit at rarely updated funding-round valuations with no continuous market check. Its 2.5% management fee and 3.22% total expense ratio also set an exceptionally high bar for returns. x.com 

RoboStrategy is a red flag because buyers pay about five times its net asset value, effectively valuing its Figure stake at over $200 billion versus Figure's $39 billion valuation. Shares trade at $37.92 against a NAV of $7.34, and about $2 billion of ongoing dilution exploits that gap. Most retail buyers don't read filings or understand closed-end funds, so the price reflects float dynamics, not fundamentals, leaving them as exit liquidity. Unitree, the top humanoid maker, lists at $6 billion. … Show more

RoboStrategy's portfolio is gaining real-world validation: its fourth- and fifth-largest holdings, Apptronik at 15% of NAV and Dexmate at 10%, are being used at Google. x.com 

Tesla's 200x earnings multiple asks too much of weak current results and speculative future products. Third-quarter revenue fell 0.4% year over year and EBIT missed estimates by 25%, despite gross-margin and cash-flow beats. Robotaxis, humanoids and other future plans may have appeal, but impressive parts of the business do not make the stock worth its current price. x.com  x.com  x.com 

RoboStrategy's model breaks if it trades below 1x mNAV, so buying at 3.5x mNAV makes little sense. Below NAV it would have to sell holdings to buy back stock. A post the author replies to compares it to Berkshire and SoftBank, which traded at discounts for decades, but Berkshire grew capital through insurance float and SoftBank through its Vision Funds; neither relied on issuing shares above NAV. RoboStrategy can't grow capital unless retail pays more than $1 for $1 of illiquid assets. x.com  … Show more

RoboStrategy gives retail investors pre-IPO exposure to leading US humanoid robot makers, and its chart is coiled for a breakout. CEO Andrew Kang named Tesla Optimus, Figure AI and Apptronik his top three American humanoid plays from 112 startups; Figure AI and Apptronik are among its largest disclosed holdings. He cited Figure 03 robots sorting a quarter-million packages over 200 hours without a major glitch. Price has squeezed into a symmetrical triangle since July, with $29.50 as the trigger. … Show more

Agility Robotics, via the Churchill Capital XI merger, is too early to own: it seeks a $2.5B valuation on an estimated $30-35M of trailing revenue. It is a really cool company, but no sure thing. x.com