Finn Stockinger
Equity Analyst & Investor, Technology Research
BOT risks trapping retail buyers at large gaps to its NAV, since its shares trade daily on hype and social media noise, amplified by insiders with big reach on X, while its private robotics holdings sit at rarely updated funding-round valuations with no continuous market check. Its 2.5% management fee and 3.22% total expense ratio also set an exceptionally high bar for returns. x.com
RoboStrategy is a red flag because buyers pay about five times its net asset value, effectively valuing its Figure stake at over $200 billion versus Figure's $39 billion valuation. Shares trade at $37.92 against a NAV of $7.34, and about $2 billion of ongoing dilution exploits that gap. Most retail buyers don't read filings or understand closed-end funds, so the price reflects float dynamics, not fundamentals, leaving them as exit liquidity. Unitree, the top humanoid maker, lists at $6 billion. … Show more
RoboStrategy's model breaks if it trades below 1x mNAV, so buying at 3.5x mNAV makes little sense. Below NAV it would have to sell holdings to buy back stock. A post the author replies to compares it to Berkshire and SoftBank, which traded at discounts for decades, but Berkshire grew capital through insurance float and SoftBank through its Vision Funds; neither relied on issuing shares above NAV. RoboStrategy can't grow capital unless retail pays more than $1 for $1 of illiquid assets. x.com … Show more
RoboStrategy gives retail investors pre-IPO exposure to leading US humanoid robot makers, and its chart is coiled for a breakout. CEO Andrew Kang named Tesla Optimus, Figure AI and Apptronik his top three American humanoid plays from 112 startups; Figure AI and Apptronik are among its largest disclosed holdings. He cited Figure 03 robots sorting a quarter-million packages over 200 hours without a major glitch. Price has squeezed into a symmetrical triangle since July, with $29.50 as the trigger. … Show more
BOT is a poor way to own private companies because buyers pay 5-6x net asset value. Investing directly at current funding rounds through a platform like MicroVentures is a better option. The only reason to buy is a bet that retail keeps pumping it, which may well happen, but it remains a bad investment. x.com
BOT, the robotics investment vehicle, looks built to capture dumb money riding robotics hype rather than to reward investors. It came to market at 5x NAV, still trades around 3.5x, charges a heavy ~3.6% annual fee and recruits crypto Twitter influencers, much like a Chamath-style SPAC. Toxic vehicles chasing robotics hype are likely to leave retail badly hurt, though such schemes can run hard until the music stops. x.com x.com
A tiny number of companies create most stock market wealth, so the job is to find them and hold on. Since 1925, 46 companies have delivered half of the $90 trillion of value created. The best investors press their winners harder, and diversifying signals a lack of conviction. Portfolio construction that combines uncorrelated assets, each with a chance at 10x or 100x, keeps volatility down while staying above average for decades. data-1.podcastai.com
The closed-end fund BOT is ridiculously priced against its NAV of $7.50, with buying driven by a longtime bitcoin promoter on X. A premium to $10 or even $15 might be defensible, but not the current price. x.com
It is far too early to invest in robotics, and ETFs such as BOTZ and ROBO are marketing wrappers full of legacy industrial firms and unprofitable startups. Teradyne's robotics segment brought in only $89M and cut 400 jobs, while ABB is spinning off its 12%-margin robotics unit. Humanoids still cost over $200k versus the $50-75k needed for mass use, a level projected for 2050. AI infrastructure spending is crowding out robotics capex; the alpha lies in the AI supply chain. x.com x.com
BOT's private share issuance at 3.38x NAV is accretive rather than dilutive, because the cash stays in the fund to invest in new companies or new rounds at higher valuations. By estimate it lifted NAV from about $10.51 to $10.97 a share, and the stock has tended to bottom near each new, higher 3x NAV level. The main bet is portfolio companies raising new rounds; if Apptronik or Figure AI raised at 2x their last round, holders get all that upside. A 1x NAV price, Nvidia's entry level, won't come. … Show more
Richtech Robotics is too close to a lotto ticket because of persistently untrustworthy management, despite its potential and very small market cap. x.com
