TSMC may lose pricing power as performance gains shift from shrinking transistors to stacking, interconnects and optics, while logic folding could make older processes competitive. Despite strong leading-edge demand, investors may overestimate the profit share its node leadership can retain. Its cautious expansion and past reluctance toward advanced packaging suggest a risk-averse culture that protects returns but could leave it late to disruptive technologies and key customers. x.com 

TSMC's failure to prioritize Apple marks an irreversible turning point that the market will take a long time to price, even though near-term results won't be hurt. Apple paid development costs for 2nm and saw itself as a de facto shareholder, yet got no priority supply. TSMC is not expanding capacity and told Google to go through back-end partners. That treatment drives customers like Apple toward Intel, and years from now CC Wei's stance will be looked back on with regret. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

TSMC's US expansion reduces its China risk. One of the greatest companies in the world, it has completed construction of its second Phoenix fab, per MetroPhoenix, as part of its reported $265 billion US investment. x.com 

TSMC's growth is constrained by capacity, so its growth rate is already known and priced in. x.com 

Intel and Amkor's push to displace TSMC and the US promotion of political alignment in Latin America are part of the same geopolitical trade, both a financial trade and a realpolitik swap of interests. x.com 

TSMC's strong AI demand is straining supply, while solid company fundamentals and attractive semiconductor valuations make an abrupt stop to its advance unlikely. TSMC's Wendell Huang expects 2026-28 capex to be significantly higher than in the previous three years to support customer growth; he says most capex is tied to long-term demand. x.com 

TSMC's AI growth still faces margin pressure from overseas fab expansion and a faster A14 ramp for mobile customers facing 2nm SoC challenges. 3Q gross margin of 66.4% missed expectations, and the 4Q guide is softer at 65-67%; margins are expected to remain largely flat through 2027-28 despite projected 39% revenue growth in 2027. Hold; target nudged to NT$2,999 at 20x 2027 earnings. x.com  x.com  x.com 

TSMC's conservative delay in high-NA adoption will be its downfall as Intel's stitching advances sooner. TSMC's larger-mask alternative requires changing the entire stage and is projected for production by 2033; Intel's stitching is substantially derisked and could be ready for volume production in 2027 at the earliest. TSMC's CoWoS and CoPoS shortcomings add to the concern. x.com 

TSMC wins no matter which chip carries the hype of the moment. Nvidia GPUs, Intel CPUs, Apple Silicon, Marvell, AMD, Broadcom and trendy smaller names such as Credo and Astera Labs all ultimately feed TSMC, making it a long-term hold. x.com 

TSMC's latest results point to AI chip demand still running ahead of supply, supporting the semiconductor and equipment trade. Cantor says TSMC raised its 2026 revenue outlook again, guided December-quarter sales above consensus and held 65-67% gross-margin guidance through the N2 ramp; its bullish sector read names Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA. Jensen Huang says AI labs need not reach trillions in revenue to justify the buildout. x.com  x.com