Crude oil should fall back into the $60s and likely well below over time once the Iran war is resolved. Middle East producers are overproducing but cannot export the barrels, so when the Strait fully reopens they will flood the market. Oil tried to break down from its trend line but was rejected, and bigger resolution news is likely needed to push it much lower. Cheaper oil would remove current inflation fears, setting up a deflationary boom. x.com  x.com 

Sustained high energy prices strain US farming, logistics, manufacturing and consumers, so crude oil should fall dramatically from its elevated level. Middle East and Russia tensions are lifting WTI, shown near $103, while Trump will likely step in at some point to reduce uncertainty. x.com  x.com 

Brent crude deserves to spike to $150 if the conflict stays unresolved for another month, given it reached $130 in 2022 with far less disruption. A peace deal with Iranian disarmament rules and the Strait of Hormuz operating under Western control would bring it to about $90, since damage still needs repair. Goldman Sachs's scenarios run from a six-week disruption spiking it to $120 before a fall to $80, to $140 then $95 over 10 weeks, to $160 without falling below $100. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil now has more room to fall on a deal headline than to rise on the status quo, as Trump's rejection of Iran's seven-day Hormuz plan looks like a negotiating position, with negotiators due back this week and the Saudi foreign minister in Washington. The closed Strait put Brent back at $108 with Nov–Dec backwardation near $8. Speculators added shorts three weeks running, squeeze fuel above $100 if talks fail; a deal would leave about 101,828 contracts of net length as supply. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil faces near-term pressure as Trump said US-Iran talks were productive and pledged no strikes before the November 3 elections; Brent fell to $103.36. Supply risks persist, however, with attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and 1.3 million barrels a day of Gulf of Mexico production shut in ahead of Hurricane Isaias. x.com 

A possible US strike on Iran poses near-term upside risk for crude oil. If Trump expects to lose the midterms, he may act between Israel's October 27 election and the November 3 US vote. Crude has filled the $101 gap and reached the rising channel's midpoint; if it keeps breaking higher, the next levels are $105, $110 and the channel top near $115. x.com 

Oil's slide from $120 during the war to $79 should continue as the US-Iran deal, due to be signed on the 19th in Switzerland, reopens the Strait of Hormuz and ends the US naval blockade, restoring choked supply. Cheaper oil lowers US inflation and flips the market from expecting another hike toward rate cuts, lifting risk assets. The deal is only a 60-day MOU, though, and Israel is the problem: if anything blows up, oil rips and the chain runs in reverse. x.com 

Crude oil faces lower price ceilings now that the Strait of Hormuz has reopened. The EIA's July Short-Term Energy Outlook cut its targets to $74 a barrel for Brent in 2026 and $65 in 2027 as supply chains stabilize. The bigger story is power: the EIA sees record US electricity demand through 2027, with commercial use overtaking residential, so baseload power costs stay structurally high. The winners are utilities, SMR developers and GPU clouds with cheap 24/7 power, not oil producers. x.com 

Oil traders anticipate a resumption of the Iran war after the midterm elections, favoring more upside for crude oil. After a bullish reversal off its 10-week moving average, the odds favor a continuation of the rally to the $110-120 range. x.com 

Crude oil should keep moving lower even after the midterms, because 2027 economic projections point to lower inflation. Around $100, oil was a good short since policymakers wouldn't let it break out ahead of the midterms and risk voter confidence. Some volatility is likely at first. x.com