Fortinet's strength should beget strength after a blowout Q2 and raised guidance. Revenue rose 26% to $2.05B versus $1.89B expected, EPS rose 41% and product revenue 52%, with billings up 33%. Q3 and full-year 2026 guidance both topped estimates, with full-year revenue at $8.02-8.18B. Management credits demand for its integrated SASE firewall on a single operating system and custom ASIC. IBM's profit warning flagged clients distracted by cybersecurity concerns, a sector catalyst. x.com 

Fortinet is being welcomed into the portfolio as a new holding. x.com 

Fortinet's valuation leaves it vulnerable to a sharp drop: it trades above 53x next-twelve-month earnings despite EPS growth below 20%. Its post-earnings tumble illustrates that risk. x.com 

Fortinet is a beautiful business because recurring security subscriptions make it highly stable and cash-generative. It is the clear leader in firewalls, protecting over 800,000 clients with fast, energy-efficient tools built on its own custom chips. x.com 

CrowdStrike may distinguish itself from an expensive cybersecurity group by showing more breakneck growth at earnings next month. Fortinet's slowing product revenue exposed how much relentless execution investors had priced into the group's extreme multiples, pulling CrowdStrike down in sympathy. CrowdStrike remains in a higher tier than Fortinet, which itself ranks above SentinelOne. x.com  x.com 

Fortinet's recurring service growth is slowing while its firewall product refresh does the heavy lifting. Service revenue grew 13% versus 37% for products, and the full-year service guide was cut to $5.15-$5.17 billion. A cut to the recurring guide rarely gets bought back in a week; this looks like the start of a rerating lower. x.com 

Fortinet has a possible catalyst in Pace the Frontier, which could lift cybersecurity broadly. On the chart, the stock has reclaimed its pivot while still in a boring consolidation. x.com 

Tenable looks cheap among cybersecurity software names, trading at a lower P/E than Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike, a lower forward P/E than Fortinet, and one of the group's lowest PEG ratios. Its chart shows a double breakout from a triangle and range highs, with low cycles and confirming on-balance volume. x.com 

Fortinet looks expensive at 48x cash earnings and 40x next year's, versus about 30x for software companies. Fair value is $116-$148, roughly 30x next year's cash earnings give or take 12%, so the stock trades 19% above the top of fair and turns expensive above $196. This is a valuation screen based on reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no deeper fundamental work. x.com 

Cybersecurity is the one software subsector where AI strengthens the story, because every AI gain arms both attackers and defenders, so spending only ratchets up. The market is forecast to grow from $189 billion in 2024 to $402 billion by 2034. Palo Alto sells consolidation: revenue grew 31% last quarter, and once customers platformize, switching costs become a fortress. Fortinet and Palo Alto rank first and second among software names in an 811-stock screen driven by institutional buying. x.com  … Show more