Michael Sikand
Investor, Autopilot Portfolio, Founder of Sikand Media
AEVEX stands to benefit from the $75 billion 2026 US drone budget request, which a defense official said mostly targets evaluating, buying or modifying drone systems already in use. AEVEX has shipped 10,000 Group I-V drones to Ukraine under two Defense Department contracts worth $1.2 billion. Most of the request should be approved, and it does not depend on Ukraine, so a possible Russia-Ukraine negotiation need not hurt the case. x.com x.comÂ
The Pentagon's $75B drone budget supercharges AEVEX, an asymmetrical drone stock with proven products and traction to win a piece. Per Bloomberg, the record budget request earmarks $75B for drones and counter-drone tech, while pure-play drone primes AEVEX, AeroVironment and Kratos are worth $27B combined. The main risk is a lockup expiring in six months, with Madison Dearborn and partner CoVant holding 56.6% of shares, but voracious drone demand, seen in an oversubscribed IPO, should absorb it. x.com x.com x.comÂ
AEVEX Aerospace actually manufactures drones at scale, while Ondas mostly issues shares, making AEVEX the far better long. AEVEX did $432.9M of 2025 revenue to Ondas's $50.7M at 72% of the market cap, with $503M of funded backlog toward an $800M 2026 guide and 1,000 drones a month from Tampa. Ondas lacks a consolidated US factory, its share count went from 49M to 482M in three years, and it trades at 23-28x forward sales versus AEVEX's 4.5x. AEVEX's October lockup expiry is worth trimming into. … Show more
Avex is the pick to own the drone arms race now that the defense budget earmarks $53 billion for drone technology, a 24,000% increase. Drones are no longer a future theme but the current arms race. x.comÂ
Aevex Aerospace isn't cheap just because its EV/revenue or price-to-sales multiples look reasonable next to AeroVironment and Kratos. A dollar of Aevex revenue is not worth the same, as those two have much more sophisticated technology, while Aevex focuses on low-cost drones, an even more competitive market. It is worth considering only once people stop talking about it. x.comÂ
AVEX is taking off because it meets irreplaceable defense demand for low-cost, expendable kamikaze drones. The Russia-Ukraine war shows masses of cheap drones outpacing costly missiles and jets, and its modular, 3D-printed one-way attack drone can be mass-produced cheaply, fitting the Pentagon's Replicator push for swarming systems. It held $356.6M of funded backlog in late March, 93% due to become 2026 revenue, with 88% of revenue from the US government. As a new IPO, it has no trapped holders. … Show more
AEVEX's 10% drop on a public offering of about 8 million shares could be a good buying opportunity, especially if the stock falls steeply after the open. AEVEX is a prime contractor and enabler for US unmanned aerial systems strategies, designing, building and supporting autonomous, modular and attritable systems for military and intelligence use. x.comÂ
AEVEX's private-equity owner has begun its exit early, confirming the overhang. Per AEVEX's S-1, Madison Dearborn launched a secondary offering priced at $27, with underwriters waiving the October lockup so it can sell now; the stock closed at $24.61. Madison Dearborn will still control about 70% of voting power, so this is only the beginning of its exit. The filing also confirms Ukraine end-users were a substantial portion of 2025 revenue. The Q1 beat and new Air Force contract are real. x.comÂ
Drone stocks fell in 2026 even as backlogs hit records: Ukraine turned aircraft into ammunition, and the Pentagon's 2027 request holds nearly $75B for drones and counter-drone. AeroVironment's reordered loitering munitions and Kratos's jet drones are highest conviction. Counter-drone names Ondas, Axon, Motorola Solutions, Safe Pro, DroneShield and Rheinmetall gain as threats grow, Unusual Machines from Chinese-parts bans. Primes bury drone exposure; pure plays may not convert backlog. x.com … Show more
AEVEX Aerospace is a far more reasonably priced way into defense. @michaelsikand calls it a $3.6B Anduril competitor that shipped 10K drones to Ukraine, guides to $800M of 2026 revenue, beat Anduril on an Army program and is valued over $1B below Ondas despite 5x the forward revenue. Execution will be judged quarter by quarter. Risks are competition, lumpy contract-based growth and margins that may barely expand. x.comÂ
AEVEX's management and private-equity owners diluted IPO buyers right after the roadshow, and holders are still heading for the exits even on a big up day for drones. A quoted post says management either badly misjudged its cash needs six weeks ago or got poor advice from its bankers, or both, to return for a dilutive offering so soon after the IPO. x.comÂ
Trump's 100% tariffs on imported drones, effective September 3, force the largest import substitution the drone industry has seen, favoring US makers. AeroVironment already builds at scale and won a $400M Army laser counter-drone contract; Kratos has a record $2.01B backlog; AEVEX's Phoenix Ghost is combat-proven, with a $503M backlog; Red Cat is the closest public DJI replacement; and Unusual Machines makes motors and flight controllers to replace Chinese parts, which the tariff also hits. … Show more
