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Sleuth

Stock Investor, Early Ondas Holdings Shareholder

4 Jun, 20:43Latest

AEVEX's private-equity owner has begun its exit early, confirming the overhang. Per AEVEX's S-1, Madison Dearborn launched a secondary offering priced at $27, with underwriters waiving the October lockup so it can sell now; the stock closed at $24.61. Madison Dearborn will still control about 70% of voting power, so this is only the beginning of its exit. The filing also confirms Ukraine end-users were a substantial portion of 2025 revenue. The Q1 beat and new Air Force contract are real. x.com

AVEX

22 Apr, 16:32

AEVEX's risk/reward is poor after nearly doubling in days. Most revenue ties to Ukraine programs, at immediate risk if the war ends or US support shrinks. Heavy private equity ownership faces an October lockup, and PE typically sells into retail enthusiasm. Gross margin fell to 21.8% from 28.1% in 2025, IPO proceeds mostly restructured debt, and there was no guidance. Its offensive-strike focus misses counter-UAS, budgeted at $20.6B for FY2027, up 424%. Its backlog is strong. x.com

AVEX

Temple 8 Research

AI Buildout, Macro & Energy Infrastructure Research

22 Apr

AVEX

AVEX looks set to suffer more because a drone company tied to Trump's sons is likely to take business from it. This comes as @michaelsikand, a large holder, reports the newly listed, tiny-float stock hit his portfolio hard while he stands by his thesis. x.com

Fund.TBD

Swing Trader, Technical/Fundamental Analysis

4 Jun

AVEX

AEVEX's management and private-equity owners diluted IPO buyers right after the roadshow, and holders are still heading for the exits even on a big up day for drones. A quoted post says management either badly misjudged its cash needs six weeks ago or got poor advice from its bankers, or both, to return for a dilutive offering so soon after the IPO. x.com

KawzInvests

Co-Author of Asymmetrical Bets, Photonics/Optical Cycle, AI/Defense/Space

20 Apr

ONDS

AVEX

AEVEX Aerospace actually manufactures drones at scale, while Ondas mostly issues shares, making AEVEX the far better long. AEVEX did $432.9M of 2025 revenue to Ondas's $50.7M at 72% of the market cap, with $503M of funded backlog toward an $800M 2026 guide and 1,000 drones a month from Tampa. Ondas lacks a consolidated US factory, its share count went from 49M to 482M in three years, and it trades at 23-28x forward sales versus AEVEX's 4.5x. AEVEX's October lockup expiry is worth trimming into. … Show more

Say No To Trading

Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management

30 Apr

AVEX

Aevex Aerospace isn't cheap just because its EV/revenue or price-to-sales multiples look reasonable next to AeroVironment and Kratos. A dollar of Aevex revenue is not worth the same, as those two have much more sophisticated technology, while Aevex focuses on low-cost drones, an even more competitive market. It is worth considering only once people stop talking about it. x.com

Rand Group

Crypto Trader & Investor, Building RR2 Capital, Early-Stage Investing

14 Jul

TXT

MSI

NOC

LMT

Drone stocks fell in 2026 even as backlogs hit records: Ukraine turned aircraft into ammunition, and the Pentagon's 2027 request holds nearly $75B for drones and counter-drone. AeroVironment's reordered loitering munitions and Kratos's jet drones are highest conviction. Counter-drone names Ondas, Axon, Motorola Solutions, Safe Pro, DroneShield and Rheinmetall gain as threats grow, Unusual Machines from Chinese-parts bans. Primes bury drone exposure; pure plays may not convert backlog. x.com … Show more

Rich Peter

Investor, Crypto, US Stocks & High-Dividend ETFs

30 May

AVEX

AVEX is taking off because it meets irreplaceable defense demand for low-cost, expendable kamikaze drones. The Russia-Ukraine war shows masses of cheap drones outpacing costly missiles and jets, and its modular, 3D-printed one-way attack drone can be mass-produced cheaply, fitting the Pentagon's Replicator push for swarming systems. It held $356.6M of funded backlog in late March, 93% due to become 2026 revenue, with 88% of revenue from the US government. As a new IPO, it has no trapped holders. … Show more

Say No To Trading

Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management

13 Aug

ONDS

Ondas Holdings' valuation is hard to justify, and its long-term risk/reward looks less favorable than AeroVironment or Kratos. Per @rzayev7895's read of the earnings, growth comes from acquisitions rather than organically, share count rose 200-300%, market cap roughly quadrupled, cash comes from stock sales, and most backlog arrived with acquired companies. Ondas is more than drones, with critical private networks, but that does not change the valuation view. x.com x.com x.com

Finn Stockinger

Equity Analyst & Investor, Technology Research

4 May

XNDU

Xanadu's stock was a textbook trap that has now sprung, falling about 60% premarket as insiders exit. An S-1 registered about 294M shares for resale by existing holders, which brings the company nothing and floods the float of a startup with $4.6M in annual revenue. A multi-billion-dollar valuation was unsustainable, and as a post-SPAC name its hype premium evaporated once lockups and conversions hit. Brilliant technology doesn't make a safe stock when insiders rush for the exits. x.com

Babyfolio

Software Engineer, AI Infrastructure Investor

20 Apr

AVEX

AEVEX Aerospace is a far more reasonably priced way into defense. @michaelsikand calls it a $3.6B Anduril competitor that shipped 10K drones to Ukraine, guides to $800M of 2026 revenue, beat Anduril on an Army program and is valued over $1B below Ondas despite 5x the forward revenue. Execution will be judged quarter by quarter. Risks are competition, lumpy contract-based growth and margins that may barely expand. x.com

rb3k

Founder of Sailboat, On-Chain Trading App

28 May

AMPX

Amprius Technologies could become a drone-era bottleneck play, the way AI created bottlenecks elsewhere, after the recent government drone news. It makes next-generation silicon-carbon batteries, its largest customer is the Department of War, and it has already supplied many batteries to Ukraine. With abundant liquidity in stocks, the move could have legs, though this is a low-conviction call. x.com

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