Temple 8 Research
AI Buildout, Macro & Energy Infrastructure Research
AEVEX's private-equity owner has begun its exit early, confirming the overhang. Per AEVEX's S-1, Madison Dearborn launched a secondary offering priced at $27, with underwriters waiving the October lockup so it can sell now; the stock closed at $24.61. Madison Dearborn will still control about 70% of voting power, so this is only the beginning of its exit. The filing also confirms Ukraine end-users were a substantial portion of 2025 revenue. The Q1 beat and new Air Force contract are real. x.comÂ
AEVEX's management and private-equity owners diluted IPO buyers right after the roadshow, and holders are still heading for the exits even on a big up day for drones. A quoted post says management either badly misjudged its cash needs six weeks ago or got poor advice from its bankers, or both, to return for a dilutive offering so soon after the IPO. x.comÂ
Avex is the pick to own the drone arms race now that the defense budget earmarks $53 billion for drone technology, a 24,000% increase. Drones are no longer a future theme but the current arms race. x.comÂ
Aevex Aerospace isn't cheap just because its EV/revenue or price-to-sales multiples look reasonable next to AeroVironment and Kratos. A dollar of Aevex revenue is not worth the same, as those two have much more sophisticated technology, while Aevex focuses on low-cost drones, an even more competitive market. It is worth considering only once people stop talking about it. x.comÂ
Drone and autonomy stocks are where government money is going next, as Trump pursues funding deals to boost domestic drone production. Dell is up over 50% since Trump said to buy it, and drone names could do the same once he announces picks. The list spans AeroVironment, Kratos, Red Cat, Ondas, Draganfly, Unusual Machines, Swarmer and Palladyne AI; counter-drone names DroneShield and L3Harris; and primes Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, Textron, General Dynamics and Boeing. x.com x.comÂ
AVEX is taking off because it meets irreplaceable defense demand for low-cost, expendable kamikaze drones. The Russia-Ukraine war shows masses of cheap drones outpacing costly missiles and jets, and its modular, 3D-printed one-way attack drone can be mass-produced cheaply, fitting the Pentagon's Replicator push for swarming systems. It held $356.6M of funded backlog in late March, 93% due to become 2026 revenue, with 88% of revenue from the US government. As a new IPO, it has no trapped holders. … Show more
Drone stocks fell in 2026 even as backlogs hit records: Ukraine turned aircraft into ammunition, and the Pentagon's 2027 request holds nearly $75B for drones and counter-drone. AeroVironment's reordered loitering munitions and Kratos's jet drones are highest conviction. Counter-drone names Ondas, Axon, Motorola Solutions, Safe Pro, DroneShield and Rheinmetall gain as threats grow, Unusual Machines from Chinese-parts bans. Primes bury drone exposure; pure plays may not convert backlog. x.com … Show more
AgEagle could benefit as the military buys all the cheap small recon drones it can during the Iran conflict. Per @AtomsNotBits, the US Army just placed a $52M+ order for over 2,500 Skydio X10D drones, and AgEagle's specs are similar to Skydio's or better on many metrics, with Skydio's main edge being production capacity. The stock remains weighed down by a shelf allowing about $90M of dilution against a roughly $40M market cap. x.comÂ
Drone stocks look obvious winners for the next few years as one of the earliest clear beneficiaries of the robotics revolution. Ondas and AVEX are the preferred exposures, and AeroVironment is also a great pick whose pullback looks overdone relative to its fundamental story. x.comÂ
US drone stocks such as Ondas, AeroVironment, Kratos, Unusual Machines and Red Cat are set for a legendary rotation as the Trump administration is in talks to fund US drone companies, per a WSJ report shared by @zerohedge. x.comÂ