Dr J Rould
Full-Time Tech Investor, Quantum/Cybersecurity, Philosophy Background
Drone stocks look obvious winners for the next few years as one of the earliest clear beneficiaries of the robotics revolution. Ondas and AVEX are the preferred exposures, and AeroVironment is also a great pick whose pullback looks overdone relative to its fundamental story. x.comÂ
Drone and autonomy stocks are where government money is going next, as Trump pursues funding deals to boost domestic drone production. Dell is up over 50% since Trump said to buy it, and drone names could do the same once he announces picks. The list spans AeroVironment, Kratos, Red Cat, Ondas, Draganfly, Unusual Machines, Swarmer and Palladyne AI; counter-drone names DroneShield and L3Harris; and primes Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, Textron, General Dynamics and Boeing. x.com x.comÂ
Drone stocks are next in line for administration backing, after semiconductors and quantum ran when the President pointed investors to them. Dell, Intel, AMD and Marvell rose 200% after the semis call, and quantum names surged on government grants. The President is buying, then telling investors what to buy, so Unusual Machines, Kratos, Ondas, Red Cat, AeroVironment, AIRO and AgEagle are the names to own over the next three years. x.comÂ
Aevex Aerospace isn't cheap just because its EV/revenue or price-to-sales multiples look reasonable next to AeroVironment and Kratos. A dollar of Aevex revenue is not worth the same, as those two have much more sophisticated technology, while Aevex focuses on low-cost drones, an even more competitive market. It is worth considering only once people stop talking about it. x.comÂ
US drone stocks such as Ondas, AeroVironment, Kratos, Unusual Machines and Red Cat are set for a legendary rotation as the Trump administration is in talks to fund US drone companies, per a WSJ report shared by @zerohedge. x.comÂ
AeroVironment is a buy because its proprietary drones avoid the price race to the bottom hitting commodity disposable drone makers, with Kratos the other proprietary exception. A quoted post notes AeroVironment is the only name in a drone basket below fair value, with 44.5% analyst upside. x.comÂ
AVEX looks set to suffer more because a drone company tied to Trump's sons is likely to take business from it. This comes as @michaelsikand, a large holder, reports the newly listed, tiny-float stock hit his portfolio hard while he stands by his thesis. x.comÂ
Ondas' long-term opportunity extends beyond drones into growing counter-drone and unmanned ground vehicle markets. Broad industry estimates for these markets rise from $90.6B in 2025 to $210B by 2033, with counter-drone systems the fastest-growing segment at 26.8% annually. That total is neither Ondas revenue nor its own addressable market and may include overlap. Bullish on the company's future, but execution must earn conviction. x.com x.comÂ
Ondas, AeroVironment, LightPath, Kraken Robotics and Kratos are the best defense rotation candidates right now, since the sector will eventually pick up steam again and positioning before the move is key. x.comÂ
Ondas Holdings' valuation is hard to justify, and its long-term risk/reward looks less favorable than AeroVironment or Kratos. Per @rzayev7895's read of the earnings, growth comes from acquisitions rather than organically, share count rose 200-300%, market cap roughly quadrupled, cash comes from stock sales, and most backlog arrived with acquired companies. Ondas is more than drones, with critical private networks, but that does not change the valuation view. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Drone stocks could go on a tear this fall because drone funding is bipartisan, so a likely Democratic midterm win shouldn't derail the trade. Democrats backed Ukraine war funding and could pass bigger, faster aid. Drone bills, from the Chinese-drone ban to the COUNTER Act, have co-sponsors from both parties, so drones and counter-drones are the least contested part of the $1.5T budget. Nearly every drone stock beat and raised, yet sentiment is still depressed. LightPath stands out. x.com x.com … Show more
