Micro2Macr0
Macro Economist
Apple's App Store revenue is at risk in an agentic AI world, as @chamath argued on the All-In podcast, because AI agents can easily bypass app GUIs to give users what they want. The same applies to Google's Android store. More revenue could then flow to creators who now give up 30% of what they make. x.comÂ
AI's threat to incumbent tech makes SpaceX the preferred investment for the next decade. AI has begun taking business from Google, with Amazon and Apple next; Microsoft's 27% workforce reduction program signals desperation. x.comÂ
Apple faces a disruption it will never come back from, coming from whichever company makes open-source AI possible on device. Apple's latest launch, per @StockMKTNewz, was the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, updated AirPods and Apple Watch, and its first foldable, the iPhone Duo. x.comÂ
Apple's distribution will put its own or a partner's AI agent at the top of the market. x.comÂ
Apple's ecosystem lock-in and virtually nonexistent groundbreaking innovation since AirPods make it one of the slimiest companies in the stock market and a stock to never own. It has admitted throttling older iPhones, charges developers 30% in the App Store, limits interoperability to keep users locked in, and earns billions in Services revenue from customers who struggle to leave. Its model extracts as much as possible from captured users. x.com x.comÂ
Apple is a sell here because buybacks are replacing innovation while its share price is dangerously extended. It is not spending on AI, in cloud services, making robots or pursuing global WiFi; its VR, Siri chatbot and iCar efforts have failed. Its flip phone follows Samsung's, and AirPods have poor battery life and microphones. The share price has held up, but only for now. x.comÂ
Apple can be the AI winner in consumer agents, which could push the stock to new highs. The new smart Siri launches next month with full AI in-app developer tools, a potential breakthrough: local, private agents for billions of people with easy UX and access to all on-device data. Near term the stock was priced to perfection at over 40x earnings, and Q2 missed and guided lower on memory supply issues and weak services. @MilkRoadAI also notes the App Store's first sales decline in a decade. x.comÂ
Google's Search ads face a growing threat because AI agents using Search do not click ads and people will increasingly use AI apps to search. A quoted Google comment says strong AI Mode query growth has brought lower monetization. Search makes 90% of Google's profits. x.comÂ
Apple has failed so badly at AI that there is little reason to own more of the stock. It should have been the biggest and best in AI right out of the gate and has no excuse for falling behind. x.com x.comÂ
Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft, worth $14T combined, are all about to make new all-time highs because the agentic consumer era has begun, exploding demand for compute and shifting consumption from humans to agents. Bubble fears were wrong at the enterprise agentic moment last November with Opus 4.5, when ORCL CDS charts circulated, and today's worries about breadth and 10-year rates repeat that mistake. Future shock is real. x.comÂ
Apple has trapped itself: after years of unnecessary price hikes while lagging in AI, it cannot raise prices now that memory costs require it without losing consumers. Its reported turn to CXMT memory hurts Apple, not memory makers, because CXMT physically cannot meet demand and using it could backfire on Apple's quality control. It instead strengthens the case for the big three memory makers, especially Micron. Without AI gains, loyal customers may start looking for alternatives. x.com x.com … Show more
