Biotech2k
Biotech Investor, AI-Driven Drug Discovery
Mirum's small indications cap its upside, while Q4 Hep D phase 3 data must be good and its PSC filing on phase 2 data risks rejection after the FDA asked for phase 3. Those risks are priced in only below $80, where Mirum is worth holding and building. Above $95 it is an easy sell until the risks play out; $99 is a stated sale level if the stock gets too expensive. x.com x.comÂ
Mirum's PSC filing risks rejection because the FDA requested phase 3 data, but the company plans an early-2027 submission based on phase 2 without a phase 3 study. A rejection could delay filing by a year or more; that risk is not yet priced into the stock and must clear before Mirum looks really positive. Even so, a cheaper Mirum remains worth accumulating for a larger position. x.com x.comÂ
Zura Bio's small target markets and cash-consuming clinical development make its binary risk not worth taking. Its nearest-term phase 2 programs target hidradenitis and systemic sclerosis; neither has a large addressable market. Phase 2, phase 3 and a biologics license application mean no revenue for five years or more, draining cash, leaving a high debt-to-margin ratio and causing dilution. x.comÂ
uniQure's risk/reward is too high, as the stock has become a binary bet on regulatory and clinical outcomes. The earlier drop came because the FDA asked for a larger trial, a huge setback, yet the stock has since doubled as investors bet on success given very strong efficacy data. Future moves will hinge on regulatory and clinical catalysts, and the chart shows huge swings all the time. x.comÂ
