Microsoft is one of the only good values left in tech, while names such as Snowflake, Rubrik, Samsara and MongoDB look far too bubbly. If the stock simply returns to its highs, the gains are straightforward. x.com
Biotech2k
Biotech Investor, AI-Driven Drug Discovery
Microsoft's 50% Azure growth and prospect of positive cash flow in 2027 make the stock look bulletproof. Headcount cuts, lower Anthropic spend, a better Copilot routed to cheaper tokens, and coming proprietary chips and model usage add to the case. It should get Apple's multiple plus recognition for cybersecurity. x.com x.com
Combining estimated NTM revenue growth with trailing GAAP EBITDA margin makes Palo Alto Networks, Datadog, JFrog, Rubrik and Snowflake look overvalued against forward EV/sales. Zoom, Alphabet, Oracle, AppLovin, Microsoft, Fair Isaac, Adobe, Amazon and Teradata remain undervalued on this Rule of 40 comparison; Palantir, Cloudflare and CrowdStrike remain overvalued. x.com
Microsoft's position is the most crowded among the Magnificent Seven, and fund flows are against it as funds sell those stocks to reserve cash for Anthropic's IPO. It faded despite an excellent earnings report. x.com
Anthropic's S-1 and @UncleAlpha007's claim that Microsoft is growing despite a 27% headcount cut have turned the near-term tech-equity view bullish. At least a tradable rally is expected; further upside depends on Iran developments and PCE. Stay nimble. x.com x.com
Microsoft offers growth in certain segments as fast as or faster than other megacaps at a 50% discount in the multiple. Daily price action is deceiving; if the stock were up $30, the opportunity would be obvious, so treat the current price as a chance to go back and capture it. x.com
Microsoft and software stocks broadly still look expensive, because AI will get exponentially better over the next two years and the market may reset software valuations much lower. Software valuations have always been ludicrous, and heavy stock-based compensation behind many software revenues is widely ignored. Winners will emerge, but picking them is not worth trying. x.com x.com
Microsoft was flagged as an opportunity in an article a few months ago, close to the bottom: the stock's lowest point in a year was $349.21. x.com
Microsoft and Meta look like great value here; even in an over-exuberant market there are still plenty of opportunities. Morningstar says the tech sector offers unparalleled value, a call that is at least somewhat right. x.com
Microsoft and Oracle are down and out because they are software businesses, and the market is rational to trade them like the software sector rather than like pure GPU scalers such as CoreWeave and Nebius, or Alphabet, a scaler without software exposure. Meta is an outlier with its own issues: secular uncertainty and no cash flow after capex. x.com x.com
Microsoft should reach new all-time highs soon as the upcoming OpenAI IPO and its cheap valuation lift a stock that has been a laggard for a while. With an Anthropic IPO also ahead and compute scarce, the market should re-rate companies that invested in capex early, and Microsoft, like Oracle, has seen momentum ignition. x.com