James Altucher
Investor & Author, Technology & Markets
Micron's selloff on CXMT's IPO is noise: Micron is booked through 2028 with a shortage persisting, and the US won't store its memory on Chinese chips. It trades at 5x earnings, below its 30-year floor of 6x, and could buy back the company with its own cash in a couple of years. Other AI worries, such as Nvidia backstopping OpenAI's $250 billion buildout and open-weight Kimi K3, aren't real issues either; if open models matched Claude, even more data centers would be built. x.com
Micron's memory leadership remains intact because it is sold out into 2027. A red day does not change those fundamentals; anyone arguing it has topped must identify which part of demand breaks and when. x.com
Micron's China sales risk shifting to CXMT as its domestic DRAM capacity grows. Mainland sales more than tripled to $8.3B during the shortage, mostly standard DRAM that CXMT already makes; including Hong Kong, Micron booked $14.6B, 11% of FY2026 revenue. CXMT already has roughly a third of Micron's revenue, and Reuters said its server DDR5 was priced above Samsung's. Micron is the only American maker among the three ahead of CXMT; buyers drawn by supply could switch as it expands. x.com x.com
Micron faces a severe crash risk from CXMT's current threat and apparent investor complacency after a euphoric high. If the Wall St Cheat Sheet fits, most of Micron's gains across 40 years, amassed in just one year, could be erased soon. Earlier, Elon Musk said Micron had been reasonable on future memory prices; memory stocks were not yet to be faded. x.com x.com
Micron's sold-out high-bandwidth memory through 2027+ and contracts already being signed for 2029-2030+ extend its earnings runway. At 5x forward earnings, it is cheaper than a year ago; its private Anthropic stake is about to be instantly rerated at Anthropic's IPO, and a new share buyback is expected to be announced Dec. 9. Micron could certainly gain 30% in three months. x.com x.com
Micron looks very cheap because the market underestimates how sustainable its earnings will be over the next few years. x.com
Buying the DRAM dip looks too risky now because CXMT's ambitious next-generation 4F plan and SK hynix's aggressive production expansion raise supply concerns for memory stocks such as Micron, SK hynix and Samsung. CXMT is unlikely to become a serious competitive threat, but it could still weigh on storage-stock sentiment. x.com x.com
Micron could triple if earnings stay high for longer and investors stop valuing it as a commodity business. D.A. Davidson's $3,000 target implies about 20x annualized Q1 earnings versus about 7x today. Management sees supply tight through 2027-28, with demand from hyperscalers and AI leaders. Customers cutting memory per device, like Tesla's AI5, signals scarcity. Strategic agreements backed by about $32B of commitments raise the trough. China competition and untested agreements are risks. x.com
Micron can't meet customer demand, giving it rare visibility at a valuation of about 5x next year's earnings. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said customers are extending agreements into 2031, which gives certainty of demand and lets Micron plan capacity investments with confidence. The stock is now about $1,000, and with potential EPS beats over the next few quarters its forward P/E could be around 5, unthinkable about six months ago. x.com x.com
The memory sector is finished because China's CXMT has advanced a 4F² DRAM architecture that could greatly increase density. Micron, SanDisk and other memory-stock holders will bleed for months; China will lead AI moving forward, and those stocks are already paying the price. x.com
Micron's surging memory revenue points to a supercycle. Its segment and NAND revenue charts show a sharp recent acceleration, while the stock tests its rising 30-week average. x.com
