Rosanna Prestia
Founder & CEO of Hydra Wealth/Capital, Investment Strategist, Asymmetry & Bitcoin
Micron holds the leverage as memory becomes the AI buildout's constraint, and its record fiscal Q3 shows it paying off. Revenue hit $41.46B versus about $35B expected, up 346% year over year, with non-GAAP EPS of $25.11 versus $19.72; Q4 guidance calls for $50B revenue and $31 EPS. HBM4 is shipping in volume, its 2026 HBM line is sold out, and Micron is investing in and co-designing with Anthropic, a supplier locking in a customer because it sees demand structurally short for years. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Micron's surging memory revenue points to a supercycle. Its segment and NAND revenue charts show a sharp recent acceleration, while the stock tests its rising 30-week average. x.com
Micron and SK hynix pricing in a memory shortage past 2030 extends the memory-cycle case beyond the Street's 2028 expectation. SK hynix's record quarter adds evidence: per Wall St Engine, revenue rose 328% to $78.9B, operating profit rose 632% to $62.8B, and operating margin hit 80%. Agentic and physical AI could add demand as they roll out. x.com x.com
Micron faces a severe crash risk from CXMT's current threat and apparent investor complacency after a euphoric high. If the Wall St Cheat Sheet fits, most of Micron's gains across 40 years, amassed in just one year, could be erased soon. Earlier, Elon Musk said Micron had been reasonable on future memory prices; memory stocks were not yet to be faded. x.com x.com
Micron could benefit if memory demand remains strong through 2029. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said he sees no sign of demand slowing by then and that "you can always use more." x.com
Micron, SanDisk and SK Hynix look very bullish because Samsung says the memory shortage will worsen in 2027. x.com
Micron and Sandisk's current demand strength is already priced in. The market already knows today's demand is strong, after Micron said it "can't meet even half" of data center memory demand, per @PolymarketMoney. What matters is memory demand in 2028-2030 and beyond. x.com
Micron's sold-out high-bandwidth memory through 2027+ and contracts already being signed for 2029-2030+ extend its earnings runway. At 5x forward earnings, it is cheaper than a year ago; its private Anthropic stake is about to be instantly rerated at Anthropic's IPO, and a new share buyback is expected to be announced Dec. 9. Micron could certainly gain 30% in three months. x.com x.com
SK hynix's sold-out memory capacity bodes well for Micron because it sells into the same shortage. SK hynix says its DRAM and HBM are effectively sold out through 2029; deals with 14 customers cover more than half its 2027-28 capacity, and HBM demand is twice what it can make. x.com
Micron's projections are set so high that even great years may not be enough to meet them. Samsung's Q3 results show the risk: revenue of $145.6B missed the $150.7B estimate, and operating profit of $80.2B missed $81.1B. x.com
Hynix's sold-out memory supply supports expectations for big numbers from Micron, still trading at 5x forward earnings. Hynix says its HBM and DRAM chips are sold out until 2029 and a chip shortage is likely to continue into 2030. Big numbers and capital return are expected after Micron reports in December. x.com