eBay's 18.5x multiple rests on earnings that look unsustainable. That valuation is well above most internet and retail peers despite no acceleration in fundamentals, while the trading-card-game tailwind is in its later innings. Rotational flows are the only apparent obstacle to shorting it. x.com  x.com 

A GameStop bid for eBay looks unworkable, so both stocks should fade. GameStop would need to issue about 1 billion shares, wipe out its treasury and take on heavy debt, making Elon Musk's Twitter deal look easy. The deal probably never happens, and if a real offer is made, GameStop has no chance of trading up. x.com 

eBay's collectibles upside may be underappreciated because analysts may not follow the sudden surge in Pokemon trading. Pokemon volume over the past 30 days is unlike anything seen before in that market; big institutional players are entering, and some cards that sold for a couple thousand dollars a month ago now fetch hundreds of thousands. That is what the eBay bet rests on. x.com 

eBay looks overpriced at $116.50 against GameStop's takeover math, making a short cheap convexity. GameStop's original $125 offer, half cash and half stock, now implies about $116-117 after GameStop's roughly 15% drop, while a rational 10% arb spread would need a $129-130 bid. Funding that with GameStop stock needs about 20% more or heavy leverage. eBay is not a pretty asset and hardly the tip of the spear in new commerce; a higher bidder is the risk. x.com  x.com 

GameStop's $56 billion, $125-a-share bid for eBay could unlock over $100 billion of value by turning eBay from a stagnant auction site into a true Amazon rival under Ryan Cohen. Synergies span collectibles, trading cards, live commerce and store pickups, plus cost cuts and AI upgrades. Cohen's track record stands out, and the absence of any Wall Street buy rating on GameStop is a strong contrarian buy signal. x.com 

eBay is a business worth owning long term for its aggressive buybacks and its role as the go-to marketplace for used and hard-to-find items, with collectibles basically locked up. A pullback would offer a better long-term entry. A rumored GameStop bid for the roughly $50B company remains doubtful, as it would need serious financing. x.com 

GameStop shareholders face about 70% dilution to fund CEO Ryan Cohen's $56 billion offer to buy eBay, with no short squeeze coming. A year ago Cohen was hyping Bitcoin purchases, which raises doubts about whether he knows what he is doing. After that interview, a GameStop shareholder should sell every last share. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

GameStop's eBay bid looks unlikely to get funded, because Ryan Cohen only gets the $20 billion of financing if the deal stays investment grade, which is not likely. Per @Stonkfather2021, buying 51% of eBay would take about $28.4 billion, covered by GameStop's $9.5 billion+ and TD Securities' $20 billion. x.com 

eBay is getting new life from a possible takeover bid by GameStop's Ryan Cohen, who already owns 7% of the float. It has strong free cash flow, four years of rising revenue, accelerating EPS since late 2023 and growth every quarter since September 2021. MarketSurge notes a bullish base breakout, and the target is $125. x.com  x.com 

GameStop is a short because its CEO plans to raise tens of billions of dollars to complete the $56B eBay offer, massively diluting shareholders. The narrative has flipped from the little guy squeezing hedge funds to insiders using retail as exit liquidity to hit comp packages. $5 is a fitting target, though the market cap may well hold up. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com