Pepe Invests
Retail Investor, Stocks, Real Estate, AI & Bitcoin
eBay's collectibles upside may be underappreciated because analysts may not follow the sudden surge in Pokemon trading. Pokemon volume over the past 30 days is unlike anything seen before in that market; big institutional players are entering, and some cards that sold for a couple thousand dollars a month ago now fetch hundreds of thousands. That is what the eBay bet rests on. x.comÂ
The booming trading-card market should benefit eBay because most buying and selling outside card shows happens there. eBay should surprise everyone at its next earnings report; the market's growth may not be priced in yet. Big players stepping in could mean the boom is only beginning. Per stock_con_, eBay Live auctions are popular with influencer sellers; BreakerCulture says eBay Live is the only thing that will move the needle, a view shared here. High seller fees remain a drawback. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
eBay is a business worth owning long term for its aggressive buybacks and its role as the go-to marketplace for used and hard-to-find items, with collectibles basically locked up. A pullback would offer a better long-term entry. A rumored GameStop bid for the roughly $50B company remains doubtful, as it would need serious financing. x.comÂ
eBay looks set to challenge its prior all-time highs as the stock rounds the corner. An IBD chart shows steady double-digit growth and a clean trend. x.comÂ
eBay is exposed to a consumer slowdown or a burst equity bubble, because Pokemon and other speculative collectibles drove much of its recent growth. In 2000, Beanie Babies and Pokemon peaked essentially with the stock market. Its strength after Walmart's commentary and Target's numbers looks bizarre. x.comÂ
GameStop's $56 billion, $125-a-share bid for eBay could unlock over $100 billion of value by turning eBay from a stagnant auction site into a true Amazon rival under Ryan Cohen. Synergies span collectibles, trading cards, live commerce and store pickups, plus cost cuts and AI upgrades. Cohen's track record stands out, and the absence of any Wall Street buy rating on GameStop is a strong contrarian buy signal. x.comÂ
GameStop lacks the money for its eBay bid, and Ryan Cohen's interview suggests he is using retail investors as exit liquidity. The proposal offers $125 per eBay share, half cash and half GameStop stock, valuing eBay equity at $55.5 billion, with a TD Securities letter for up to $20 billion of financing. The interview sent GameStop shares lower. x.comÂ
eBay's 18.5x multiple rests on earnings that look unsustainable. That valuation is well above most internet and retail peers despite no acceleration in fundamentals, while the trading-card-game tailwind is in its later innings. Rotational flows are the only apparent obstacle to shorting it. x.com x.comÂ
eBay is getting new life from a possible takeover bid by GameStop's Ryan Cohen, who already owns 7% of the float. It has strong free cash flow, four years of rising revenue, accelerating EPS since late 2023 and growth every quarter since September 2021. MarketSurge notes a bullish base breakout, and the target is $125. x.com x.comÂ
Avoiding GameStop's unsolicited proposal and Ryan Cohen's weak execution leaves eBay better placed. eBay is easily worth over $100B today and should be worth much more in five years without GameStop and Cohen; Cohen is not the one to beat Amazon. x.comÂ
A GameStop bid for eBay looks unworkable, so both stocks should fade. GameStop would need to issue about 1 billion shares, wipe out its treasury and take on heavy debt, making Elon Musk's Twitter deal look easy. The deal probably never happens, and if a real offer is made, GameStop has no chance of trading up. x.comÂ
GameStop should be falling, not rising, on its bid for eBay, because a potential acquirer's shares should trade down on such a deal. eBay itself may also have just been hit by something Claude came up with. x.comÂ
