The Great Mattsby
Chartist, Gann Theory, Stocks/Crypto/FX
Bitcoin and Ethereum are waiting for a capital rotation that has not started yet, so linking them to macro data is mostly noise. Institutional money is still focused on the AI buildout: data centers, power, chips and hyperscaler capex. Crypto rotates only after the dominant narrative is fully expressed and capital seeks the next high-convexity opportunity, so the rotation will come once the buildout is further along, which justifies continued accumulation. x.com
Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing resilience that signals selling exhaustion. Despite the most bearish news ever this week, both are down only about 1% for the week and have not made lower lows since February. If this week's headlines can't produce a real flush, it is unclear what will, which leaves shorts in a tough spot. x.com x.com
Bitcoin and ether remain attractive for gradual long-term accumulation despite high volatility, with institutional demand still present. Crypto is heavily influenced by large players' buying and selling, and a final wave of panic before the next major rally would not be surprising, especially if that weakness is quickly bought. x.com
Institutional clients moving into Bitcoin add real backing to the AI-to-crypto rotation. T. Rowe Price's digital-assets head Blue Macellari said the $1.86T manager is actively bringing clients into Bitcoin and other crypto assets; trillions in capital are expected onchain over the next few years. At a conference with well over $50T, if not $100T, in AUM, many said the rotation has begun. It should accelerate in Q4, and the next crypto leg will be aggressive, with many still sidelined. x.com … Show more
Bitcoin and ether liquidity is fleeing to AI and the SpaceX IPO, leaving crypto, the darling of 2020-2021, with no bid. The timeline now chases AI the way it chased crypto in 2021, which looks like Magnetar 2.0. Crypto has led markets for a long time and may be leading again, so it may be time to take profits. x.com x.com
Money is starting to rotate into crypto, including Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana. As @blknoiz06 puts it, if this outperformance continues, the amount that could rotate into crypto is hard to fathom, given the ludicrous realized gains from AI stocks over the past two years. x.com
Bitcoin and Ethereum are cheap while US equities are overvalued, and capital flows from overvalued to undervalued assets, so the rotation into crypto has started. In May, BTC and ETH are outperforming the S&P 500, with monthly inflows of $1.51B into ETFs, $2.49B into stablecoins and $3.29B onto exchanges. The Clarity Act, a pro-Bitcoin Fed chair and a Digital Asset Reserve add support, though one final shakeout is likely before the next massive leg higher. x.com x.com
Ethereum feels weak with no clear catalyst, despite an appealing story of institutional adoption for real utility and infrastructure. The crypto craze may have petered out after about 15 years, and bitter memories of losses from counterparty blowups such as Voyager and FTX may never fade. x.com
Bitcoin and ether’s resilience despite months of speculative capital being disintegrated may be a tell. They are the investments to hold or add, not trade. x.com x.com
Crypto still has room to rise because institutional adoption is accelerating and good altcoins remain underowned globally. Traditional finance is bringing assets onchain, and progress since five years ago makes it impossible to be bearish. Bitcoin looks stronger than overstretched altcoins and has shaken off severe bad news; more chop or shakeouts could come before the market moves higher. x.com
ETH and SOL will struggle to stage independent narrative-driven rallies because US stocks are siphoning capital, leaving even Bitcoin short of heat and new demand. For a risk-averse investor favoring certainty over high odds, BNB and HYPE are the only higher-certainty choices besides Bitcoin, and both have outperformed it in this bear market. ETH and SOL are not bad assets, and they could get their chance once Bitcoin rises. x.com x.com
Crypto's maturation, alongside monetary debasement, should keep the revenue-generating and store-of-value portfolio barbell outperforming. These are its two primary drivers. x.com
