CrowdStrike's growth is too slow to justify its valuation. Its forward P/E has climbed to about 190, while stock-based compensation exceeds operating earnings, so reported free cash flow margins do not show what the business actually earns. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Credo's selloff looks way overdone after great results and guidance. It just grew revenue 115% with 68% gross margins and $1.4B of cash, and last quarter's GAAP net income was still $169M. Stock compensation and amortization run about $60M a quarter, roughly 12% of $479M revenue, and shrink as a share each time revenue doubles; even on GAAP earnings, a high-50s trailing multiple is covered by growth. Its acquisition should add future share and growth, with slightly lower margins in the interim. … Show more

RingCentral could reach $80 by the end of 2027 as investors come to see it as a durable cash-generating software company rather than a declining communications business. That requires 4-5% revenue growth, GAAP margin expansion ahead of schedule, debt cut to about $1 billion and proof that AI expands rather than replaces its platform. At just 7x forward free cash flow with improving profitability, it is an overlooked value stock that can deliver exceptional returns. x.com 

Snowflake is too expensive at 55x FY2027 free cash flow because stock-based compensation dwarfs that cash flow. FY2027 Q1 showed $265.5M of non-GAAP adjusted FCF against $433.7M of SBC, or 163% of FCF; trailing-12-month FCF is $1.2B versus $1.6B of SBC. That much dilution for 30% revenue growth makes it uninvestable when better stocks exist: Reddit's SBC is 21% of FCF, it grows twice as fast, and its non-GAAP net margin is 42% versus Snowflake's 10.6%. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

ServiceNow's high stock-based compensation does not break the thesis, though it raises the valuation hurdle. Q2 SBC was $655 million, about 16.4% of revenue, yet diluted shares fell from 1.047 billion to 1.034 billion as H1 buybacks of 20.1 million shares outpaced 6.7 million issued. If the $160 base-case value is remotely right, buybacks near $108 were accretive. The thesis breaks if growth slows while SBC stays near 15%, buybacks stop offsetting issuance or the sub-10% 2029 target is missed. … Show more

RingCentral should earn a higher multiple than HubSpot because a business growing 5% but stable is worth more than one growing 15% but slowing. x.com 

Snowflake has not solved its stock-compensation problem just because the stock jumped, and its valuation still is not justified by any visible path to real profits. SBC still eats 29% of revenue, GAAP EBIT margin is -24%, and future GAAP earnings remain wildly uncertain. @Sam_Badawi argues the 38% jump on reaccelerating growth shows Snowflake growing out of its SBC problem, but the market simply does not care about the bottom line right now. It remains speculative and could work. x.com 

ServiceNow is not as cheap as its roughly 13x free cash flow multiple suggests, because stock-based compensation makes up about 44% of its free cash flow, leaving an economic FCF yield of only 2.8%. Twilio looks worse on the same measure, with SBC at 60% of FCF and a 1.8% yield. x.com  x.com  x.com 

RingCentral fits the Stage 2 pattern: EPS has grown steadily, and estimates for the next three years are expected to accelerate almost exponentially. @FranVezz also points to a tremendous weekly breakout in the stock. x.com  x.com 

Atlassian is far less cash-rich than it looks once stock-based compensation is treated as a real cost. About $1.3 billion of operating cash flow and only $50 million of capex look strong, but roughly $1.5 billion of SBC is the real spend, $165 million more than operating cash flow. Paying employees in stock flatters cash flow while diluting shareholders, and buybacks only partially offset SBC rather than reducing the share count. x.com  x.com