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Hated Moats Investor

Contrarian Quality-Stock Research, 25 Years in Markets, GOOGL Since 2011

26 Jul, 15:27Latest

ServiceNow's high stock-based compensation does not break the thesis, though it raises the valuation hurdle. Q2 SBC was $655 million, about 16.4% of revenue, yet diluted shares fell from 1.047 billion to 1.034 billion as H1 buybacks of 20.1 million shares outpaced 6.7 million issued. If the $160 base-case value is remotely right, buybacks near $108 were accretive. The thesis breaks if growth slows while SBC stays near 15%, buybacks stop offsetting issuance or the sub-10% 2029 target is missed. x.com

NOW

22 Jul, 20:35

ServiceNow's Q2 reinforces that it is an embedded workflow and control layer across enterprises, not just per-seat SaaS, with AI extending the platform rather than replacing it. Subscription revenue rose 24.5% to $3.877B, cRPO reached $13.2B, AI contract value passed $1B and $1M+ deals grew nearly 40%. The full-year subscription guide rose to $15.76-15.78B. Caveats: the raise was modest, Q3 guidance slightly missed, and acquisition margin pressure, stock pay and AI growth still need proving. x.com

NOW

Stephanie Link

Chief Investment Strategist & Portfolio Manager at Hightower, Contributor to CNBC

29 Oct

NOW

ServiceNow's third-quarter subscription revenue, cRPO and operating-margin beats make its double-digit selloff look overdone. After a 77% rise from April lows, it needed a big beat and raise; lower fourth-quarter cRPO guidance and back-loaded implications for $30-$32 billion in subscription growth by 2030 leave the stock in show-me mode. x.com

Jordan

Long-Term Stock Investor, Compounding & Portfolio Construction

29 Oct

NOW

ServiceNow's unexpected expense surge makes its rich valuation more vulnerable in a struggling software sector. Revenue rose 21%, but spending drove an EPS miss and one quarter of guided cRPO deceleration; wider market conditions could hurt near term. The 20% selloff looks excessive, and few software companies should benefit as much from AI. Management could deliver over 3-5 years, though the stock is only close to a buy again now; below $100 looks good for the long term. x.com x.com x.com x.com

LongGameEquity

Long-Term Investor, AI & Software

21h ago

NOW

ServiceNow's costs are rising far faster than revenue without the RPO acceleration management promised. Q3 revenue rose 21%, while total cost of revenue climbed 56% and net income fell 45%; stock compensation appears to be using about half of free cash flow. The selloff looks deserved, though the shares are now closer to fair value. Sustainable margins and measurable returns remain the test. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

Noah

Stock Investor & Trader, US Equities

23h ago

NOW

Cost fears and CRPO misunderstandings caused ServiceNow's selloff. The stock is definitely undervalued; the market's reaction is ridiculous. x.com

Ashton Invests

Long-Term Equity Investor, Fundamental Stock Research

29 Oct

NOW

ServiceNow keeps selling more to existing customers over time, one of the biggest reasons to be bullish long term. Its 2011 customer cohort's annual contract value grew from an indexed $100 to $3,730 by Q3 2026, or 37.3x, even including customer losses. x.com

Bill 'Latency Lord' Brennan

Fundamental Growth Investor, B2B/Sector Leaders & Picks-and-Shovels

29 Oct

NOW

ServiceNow's growth and deteriorating margins do not justify its valuation. It grew 3% quarter over quarter against a 107x trailing GAAP P/E, and its margins continue to deteriorate. It remains a great company, but is mostly saturated relative to that valuation. x.com x.com x.com

Techquity

Technology Investor, Fundamental Research

30 May

NOW

ServiceNow remains an incredible company with very few flaws and the outlook stays super bullish, but its high valuation plus stock-based compensation leaves too thin a margin of safety for now. Pure B2B SaaS is also harder to track and understand. Uber offers a better risk-reward today, and a fresh low in ServiceNow could make it worth owning again. x.com

Trevor Scott

Founder & Portfolio Manager of Tidefall Capital Management

26 Oct

CSU.TO

Constellation Software offers the same growth rate as ServiceNow at half its multiple when ServiceNow's after-tax stock-based compensation is factored in. x.com

Nicholas Mugalli

Institutional TMT & Macro Research, AI/Semiconductors/Policy

28 Oct

NOW

ServiceNow's seat business is being cannibalized faster than AI deals can replace it. Next-quarter cRPO growth is guided to 18.5%, down from 20.5%, while subscription growth was 24.5% two quarters ago; agentic usage on its platform is up 13x. Management points to AI deal value heading to $1.7bn, against a roughly $16bn subscription business. The slowdown leaves more pain ahead. Underweight, $90 target. x.com x.com

Investing visuals

Technology Investor, Visual Company Research

25 Jul

NOW

ServiceNow is a great business at a great price, now at its lowest valuation multiple ever. Revenue has doubled from $7 billion to $14 billion since 2022 while the stock sits roughly where it was then. SaaS narrative headwinds persist, but the business is doing great, and once sentiment shifts the shares could trade significantly higher. Unlike Nike, whose stock rightly reflects a declining business, ServiceNow is still growing. x.com x.com x.com

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