Dona
Crypto Trader, Bitcoin Macro Analysis & Charts
Ethereum can't do well over time unless it regains the strength and market share it lost to Solana, especially with inflationary tokenomics. Crypto is maturing, and Bitcoin will no longer lift the rest of the market the way it used to, contrary to @Nam_1r's view that a big bitcoin rally would surely pull ETH to a new high. x.com
Ether's case keeps weakening as even its ultra-sound money narrative fails: ETH supply has been inflationary since late 2024, with no sign of stopping. Unlike bitcoin, Ethereum must improve its scalability because its use case can't succeed with current mechanisms, while Solana dominates on-chain activity and attracts retail worldwide. x.com x.com
Ethereum's ETF outflows look especially troubling relative to other major crypto assets. Weekly ETH ETF outflows of $320 million exceeded Bitcoin's $228 million and Solana's $25 million combined, per Ted Pillows. x.com
Ethereum's strong ecosystem is not translating into enough ETH value capture to support significant appreciation unless that changes. The Ethereum Foundation selling ETH again is frustrating; buybacks and stronger incentives for L2s to accumulate and buy back ETH could improve the token's economics. Fundstrat, which owns roughly 5% of the supply, has a huge opportunity to push for better value capture. x.com x.com
Ethereum's deeper capital liquidity favors a 65% ETH weight, while Solana's stronger trading and consumer activity warrants 35% SOL in a long-term allocation. At ~4.8 times Solana's market cap, Ethereum holds ~8.4 times its DeFi TVL and ~9.1 times its stablecoin liquidity. Solana leads in chain fees, app revenue and DEX volume, but app revenue need not accrue to SOL. Sustained growth in Solana's stablecoins, TVL and revenue could change the weights. x.com
ETH and SOL will struggle to stage independent narrative-driven rallies because US stocks are siphoning capital, leaving even Bitcoin short of heat and new demand. For a risk-averse investor favoring certainty over high odds, BNB and HYPE are the only higher-certainty choices besides Bitcoin, and both have outperformed it in this bear market. ETH and SOL are not bad assets, and they could get their chance once Bitcoin rises. x.com x.com
Ether and Solana lack a path to profitability, which any sound investment should have, so severe underperformance is happening and will continue. x.com
Bitcoin and ether’s resilience despite months of speculative capital being disintegrated may be a tell. They are the investments to hold or add, not trade. x.com x.com
Weak liquidity and insufficient buying pressure leave altcoins vulnerable to another liquidation wave. Many sit near support while selling pressure persists, so even a small selloff could trigger liquidations; a bounce is still possible, but the bottom is not convincing yet. A further major drop would offer better entries in bitcoin, ether, Pendle and Bittensor, whose long-term potential remains intact. x.com
Bitcoin keeps falling and Ether even more so because liquidity is being sought and there is distress in the system. Strategy is a target for put options. x.com
Ethereum and Solana serve different institutional users rather than competing head-on: Ethereum is nobody's layer, while Solana is one fast ecosystem for consumers, volume and heavy compute. Solana is one of the only blockchains to survive its own "death." Per @brlabsxyz, its institutional payments story now rests on specific financial operations, such as Cross River Bank and Lead Bank settling with Visa in USDC over Solana. x.com
Programmability lets stronger monies displace native L1 tokens, eroding monetary premium. Money concentrates liquidity in few assets; stablecoins and wrapped bitcoin dominate Ethereum swap pairs, while stablecoins take lending share. On Solana, stablecoins dominate lending and are starting to replace SOL in swap pairs. Litecoin and Kaspa should lose monetary premium as programmable ecosystems mature. Whether limited Bitcoin extensions cross that line remains unclear. x.com
