Ether and Solana lack a path to profitability, which any sound investment should have, so severe underperformance is happening and will continue. x.com
Algod
Crypto Trader, Game Theory, Terra Critic
Solana looks like last cycle's Ether, a laggard among the majors, because its inflation keeps diluting holders. Emissions run about $5 million a day at current prices and rise as price climbs, and even with the new proposals SOL would remain inflationary. Growth in onchain activity does not accrue value to the token, and SOL was the worst-performing major even as ETH moved up. Any upside from the proposals passing is a short-term trade to sell into. x.com x.com
Ethereum can't do well over time unless it regains the strength and market share it lost to Solana, especially with inflationary tokenomics. Crypto is maturing, and Bitcoin will no longer lift the rest of the market the way it used to, contrary to @Nam_1r's view that a big bitcoin rally would surely pull ETH to a new high. x.com
Ethereum and Solana serve different institutional users rather than competing head-on: Ethereum is nobody's layer, while Solana is one fast ecosystem for consumers, volume and heavy compute. Solana is one of the only blockchains to survive its own "death." Per @brlabsxyz, its institutional payments story now rests on specific financial operations, such as Cross River Bank and Lead Bank settling with Visa in USDC over Solana. x.com
Solana is struggling to sell blockspace, a commodity racing to zero, while heavily diluting holders. At this year's rate, fees come to about $300M against roughly $2.4B of newly minted SOL, and fees are down about 79% year over year amid competition from Ethereum, Base, Hyperliquid, Near and others. SOL is not money either, so neither a profitable-chain nor a monetary-premium bull case holds. Nasdaq earns 17x what Solana does while buying back about twice as much and issuing no shares. x.com … Show more
Algorand faces a major security-budget problem because of its supply cap. Within three years its security will depend purely on fees, yet the chain is currently a ghost town, leaving no incentive to stake given the opportunity cost. Supply caps are bad design; if they worked, bitcoin would lead in security, which it clearly does not today. x.com x.com
Crypto assets should reprice upward as purchasing power falls and nearly everything else costs more. Tokenization is still in its earliest stage and should reward patient investment in projects positioned to capture it; an altcoin portfolio centered on Ethereum and value-accrual tokens, with some Robinhood and Arc exposure, should outperform nearly everything over six to twelve months. Robinhood and Arc chains may drive much of the broader altcoin expansion. x.com x.com x.com x.com
ETH and SOL will struggle to stage independent narrative-driven rallies because US stocks are siphoning capital, leaving even Bitcoin short of heat and new demand. For a risk-averse investor favoring certainty over high odds, BNB and HYPE are the only higher-certainty choices besides Bitcoin, and both have outperformed it in this bear market. ETH and SOL are not bad assets, and they could get their chance once Bitcoin rises. x.com x.com
Solana is losing its biggest advantage, the memecoin market, to Robinhood Chain, an Ethereum layer 2, which is why ether should outperform SOL this cycle. Barely two months after launch, PONS on Robinhood Chain generated about $22 million in fees over 30 days, almost half of Pump.fun's $46 million. Robinhood removes the cost and hassle that pushed small traders off Ethereum, settles back to Ethereum with ETH for gas, and adds tokenized stocks as a reason to stay. Direct fees are small for now. … Show more
Crypto's maturation, alongside monetary debasement, should keep the revenue-generating and store-of-value portfolio barbell outperforming. These are its two primary drivers. x.com
Solana looks weak relative to the broader market because Robinhood is drawing away its liquidity. Solana has lacked a tier-one exchange since FTX and really needs one. x.com