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Crypto Trader, Market Analyst
Solana looks like last cycle's Ether, a laggard among the majors, because its inflation keeps diluting holders. Emissions run about $5 million a day at current prices and rise as price climbs, and even with the new proposals SOL would remain inflationary. Growth in onchain activity does not accrue value to the token, and SOL was the worst-performing major even as ETH moved up. Any upside from the proposals passing is a short-term trade to sell into. x.com x.com
Solana stays net inflationary even under the proposal to cut issuance, because inflation already runs nearly $5M a day, about $1.8B a year, and the cut is less than half. With its starting market cap, SOL's upside is nowhere near previous cycles, so there are far better places to get paid for the risk taken. x.com
Solana is struggling to sell blockspace, a commodity racing to zero, while heavily diluting holders. At this year's rate, fees come to about $300M against roughly $2.4B of newly minted SOL, and fees are down about 79% year over year amid competition from Ethereum, Base, Hyperliquid, Near and others. SOL is not money either, so neither a profitable-chain nor a monetary-premium bull case holds. Nasdaq earns 17x what Solana does while buying back about twice as much and issuing no shares. x.com … Show more
Solana has lost its moats: speed and retail mindshare carried it this cycle, and every narrative it was meant to own now has a stronger competitor. Memecoin attention is spreading to Robinhood, BNB and Base, Robinhood is coming for tokenized stocks, and Hyperliquid owns perps. Solana's perps did $8.9B last week, which Hyperliquid often does in a day. As more volume settles in its $15.5B of stablecoins, SOL matters less beyond gas. Pump.fun has sold about 4.8M SOL and expanded beyond Solana. … Show more
Solana is becoming a one-stop shop for all of finance rather than just a memecoin casino, and could easily triple from here. Tokenized-asset spot volume on Solana hit an all-time high of about $5.7B in Q2, a sign real-world assets are finding liquidity onchain; memes brought attention, tokenized markets bring structure. World's launch put a prediction market directly inside Phantom. Solana's token inflation is a worry that hopefully gets fixed. x.com x.com x.com
Pump.fun monetizes by selling SOL to buy PUMP, favoring PUMP over Solana's native token. Over the long term, the two should flip, primarily because SOL is expected to fall to $12. x.com
Solana is losing its biggest advantage, the memecoin market, to Robinhood Chain, an Ethereum layer 2, which is why ether should outperform SOL this cycle. Barely two months after launch, PONS on Robinhood Chain generated about $22 million in fees over 30 days, almost half of Pump.fun's $46 million. Robinhood removes the cost and hassle that pushed small traders off Ethereum, settles back to Ethereum with ETH for gas, and adds tokenized stocks as a reason to stay. Direct fees are small for now. … Show more
Solana is harder to fade because StonkFun's launchpad generated over $20 million in revenue in the last 30 days. SOL price action should follow. x.com
Pump.fun has been parasitic to Solana, selling $834 million of SOL over its lifespan, while Fomo and Robinhood remain accretive to Ethereum. Selling the tokens isn't wrong, just parasitic, though without Pump.fun Solana would arguably be even less desirable. x.com x.com
Ether and Solana lack a path to profitability, which any sound investment should have, so severe underperformance is happening and will continue. x.com
Ethereum's deeper capital liquidity favors a 65% ETH weight, while Solana's stronger trading and consumer activity warrants 35% SOL in a long-term allocation. At ~4.8 times Solana's market cap, Ethereum holds ~8.4 times its DeFi TVL and ~9.1 times its stablecoin liquidity. Solana leads in chain fees, app revenue and DEX volume, but app revenue need not accrue to SOL. Sustained growth in Solana's stablecoins, TVL and revenue could change the weights. x.com
The era of buying Ether or Solana to make money looks over, as money circulates among smaller tokens while the majors stay flat. First Robinhood's chain and now Arc have drawn the flows. Even whether ETH and SOL are safe havens is debatable, since the top 100 shows these patterns will change. x.com
