Coherent's booked InP laser capacity gives it a potential path into Nvidia's CPO expansion. Nvidia wants optical-engine capacity up 15x by mid-2027 and holds laser purchase commitments and capacity rights from its $2B Coherent investment. Coherent says fiscal 2027 is essentially booked and customers are reserving into 2028, but most near-term orders are for pluggables and other products; scale-up CPO revenue starts only in H2 2027. Neither company has sized Nvidia's rights. x.com 

Coherent's 6-inch substrate access, yields and margin concerns look mostly like timing issues in the optical buildout. Coherent is now one of the preferred ways to gain exposure and should participate meaningfully, despite those constraints. x.com 

Applied Optoelectronics has a better chance than Coherent of delivering a 300-400 mW laser with tolerable RIN and linewidth. Its transceiver capacity ramp is also larger and is not gated by Sumitomo's 6-inch InP wafers. Long AAOI against short COHR is an unnecessarily dangerous pair trade idea. x.com 

Tighter Lumentum laser allocations would strengthen Coherent's pricing power if Marvell's rumored acquisition leads it to prioritize Nvidia and its own modules. Other buyers would face tighter supply, and hyperscalers would push harder to second-source lasers from Coherent. x.com 

Coherent should benefit as the shift from copper to light inside AI data centers accelerates, with co-packaged optics now in production and near-packaged optics pulling revenue forward. Nvidia's Spectrum-X Photonics switch is in full production, and TrendForce says CPO has entered mass production. Coherent CEO Jim Anderson says CPO and NPO engagement jumped in the past three to six months, nearly every large customer has a project, and its content per socket is similar in either design. x.com 

Applied Optoelectronics, Lumentum and Coherent face share losses at US hyperscalers to Innolight. Channel checks favor Innolight gaining share in Q2 2026, at the expense of those three. Per @poezhao0605, a $7B Hong Kong IPO, the largest in years and upsized from $5B on strong demand, has cleared its listing hearing. x.com 

Coherent is becoming the gatekeeper of AI photonics as networking hardware grows as critical and scarce as GPUs. It is the only player to move to 6-inch InP wafers, more than doubling chips per wafer and giving it a cost edge over rivals that buy laser chips, with EML and CW laser capacity set to double in 2026 and again in 2027. Its liquid-cooled XPO optics cut TCO by 20-30%, and its briefing raised its 2030 addressable market to $70B+, including $15B+ for CPO/NPO. x.com 

Marvell risks paying a peak-scarcity price for Lumentum if optical supply catches up by 2028-30. The proposed ~$99B deal values Lumentum at roughly 20x guided annualized revenue and 58x estimated after-tax operating income, while Lumentum, Coherent and Chinese suppliers are adding laser capacity. The DSP-and-laser combination has strategic logic, but durable scarcity economics and Nvidia's response remain uncertain. x.com 

AI bandwidth demand still favors Coherent and Lumentum, but tight customer financing can delay orders and lasting valuations need durable profits. A model provider losing share need not reduce total bandwidth use. Coherent could beat and raise guidance; Lumentum may only meet estimates this quarter, improving next quarter. If margins partly reflect scarce indium phosphide, added supply will test whether upgrades, volume and cost gains sustain earnings. These earnings calls remain forecasts. … Show more

Coherent's new US laser factory, the world's first 6-inch indium phosphide wafer fab, gives it a major technology moat. Six-inch wafers yield four times as many laser chips per wafer. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang broke ground on the factory, signaling that Nvidia has locked up Coherent's supply for years. x.com