Biotech2k
Biotech Investor, AI-Driven Drug Discovery
Intellia Therapeutics has bad management and challenged science, and it would not be surprising to see it go bankrupt after its commercial sales fail to live up to the hype, perhaps even before then. Avoiding big disasters like this matters more than finding a million great ideas, so losers should be cut quickly. x.com
Ionis is best avoided because major Phase 3 trials still hang over it, making it hard to size a meaningful position while controlling risk. Biotechs can drop 10-30% overnight on a negative read-through from another company's similar drug, with no chance to react, and a 1-2% position is mostly a waste of time. Biotech names are worth owning only once profitable, generating real cash and free of major Phase 3 risk. x.com
Intellia's first-ever Phase 3 readout for a gene-editing therapy could justify a 50-100% gain if results are strong. Its single-injection treatment for hereditary angioedema, a roughly $2 billion indication, could reach $500 million to $1 billion in peak sales if approved. At a $1.6 billion market cap with about $500 million of net cash, after falling from $177 to $6 on two patient deaths, success would also lift its ATTR Phase 3 program, more than twice HAE's size, due late 2027 to early 2028. … Show more
