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Special Situations & Volatility Investor, Wall Street Background
Ionis is best avoided because major Phase 3 trials still hang over it, making it hard to size a meaningful position while controlling risk. Biotechs can drop 10-30% overnight on a negative read-through from another company's similar drug, with no chance to react, and a 1-2% position is mostly a waste of time. Biotech names are worth owning only once profitable, generating real cash and free of major Phase 3 risk. x.comÂ
Ionis relies too heavily on partners, which has hurt its stock for years. It has never appealed and never will. x.comÂ
Zura Bio's small target markets and cash-consuming clinical development make its binary risk not worth taking. Its nearest-term phase 2 programs target hidradenitis and systemic sclerosis; neither has a large addressable market. Phase 2, phase 3 and a biologics license application mean no revenue for five years or more, draining cash, leaving a high debt-to-margin ratio and causing dilution. x.comÂ
Summit Therapeutics now looks too bubbly to keep holding. As a single-drug company it is too binary and risky, since competition could outdo that drug at any time. It was attractive at the right price, but no longer. x.comÂ
Intellia Therapeutics has bad management and challenged science, and it would not be surprising to see it go bankrupt after its commercial sales fail to live up to the hype, perhaps even before then. Avoiding big disasters like this matters more than finding a million great ideas, so losers should be cut quickly. x.comÂ
AbCellera would deserve a $20-30 share price if it clears Phase 3 trials. Reaching the high end of that range before data arrives would suggest hype getting ahead of reality. x.comÂ
Kodiak Sciences looks very extended after a 150% jump on its data release, as the stock is baking in full success that will take time to deliver. It will also need to raise capital. This is a low-conviction short, serving as a hedge for other high-conviction longs. x.com x.comÂ
Definium Therapeutics has turned from a high-risk bet into a much safer biotech investment after its single-dose DT120 cleared phase 3 in three of four major trials, all headed to the FDA together. Success in the fourth looks priced in, so full FDA approval is the next catalyst, plus possible Trump administration psychedelics moves. Analyst targets of $70-90 could be reached with commercialization in a couple of years, though more multibaggers are unlikely. Support should hold near $35. x.comÂ
Ultragenyx's biggest independent catalyst failed spectacularly, breaking the bullish case. Approval of its first drug had raised the odds for a second drug due September 29, but the third drug was the largest independent lever, and its September/October readout has now failed. x.com x.comÂ
uniQure's risk/reward is too high, as the stock has become a binary bet on regulatory and clinical outcomes. The earlier drop came because the FDA asked for a larger trial, a huge setback, yet the stock has since doubled as investors bet on success given very strong efficacy data. Future moves will hinge on regulatory and clinical catalysts, and the chart shows huge swings all the time. x.comÂ
