Ionis is best avoided because major Phase 3 trials still hang over it, making it hard to size a meaningful position while controlling risk. Biotechs can drop 10-30% overnight on a negative read-through from another company's similar drug, with no chance to react, and a 1-2% position is mostly a waste of time. Biotech names are worth owning only once profitable, generating real cash and free of major Phase 3 risk. x.com 

Recursion Pharmaceuticals looks like a falling knife despite a compelling idea behind the company. @WessexCapital calls it a financial disaster that is perpetually raising money. A large capital raise and the resulting drop would be the signal to consider it, perhaps around $1, as a lottery-style venture bet. x.com 

Kodiak Sciences has room to run after positive Phase III results, with $82.50 as the next major target. Zenkuda and tabirafusp-ted met their primary endpoints in the pivotal DAYBREAK trial in wet AMD, and Zenkuda showed a potential new standard-of-care profile, with most patients on a 24-week dosing interval under strict real-world retreatment criteria. Positive Phase III data is among the best news a company can release. x.com  x.com 

Prime Medicine's management has made a mess of the business case. Deprioritizing the CGD program, along with a CEO change and layoffs, was net negative: a proof point paired with a program cut hurt the platform's credibility, made investors question management's vision and killed the investment narrative. That raised the cost of capital, since new equity at $3 is far more dilutive. The editing tech is brilliant, but with founder Liu staying at the university, the business is unconvincing. x.com  … Show more

Small- and mid-cap biotech looks like one of healthcare's more asymmetric setups after a four-year bear market, as AI speeds drug discovery and Big Pharma faces a patent cliff. Over $300B of pharma revenue goes off patent in the next few years, M&A is already ramping hard as pharma hunts for assets, and many small and mid-cap names still trade at reasonable valuations, making them potential takeover targets. x.com 

Ultragenyx's biggest independent catalyst failed spectacularly, breaking the bullish case. Approval of its first drug had raised the odds for a second drug due September 29, but the third drug was the largest independent lever, and its September/October readout has now failed. x.com  x.com