J Keynes
Growth Investment Research
Recursion Pharmaceuticals looks like a falling knife despite a compelling idea behind the company. @WessexCapital calls it a financial disaster that is perpetually raising money. A large capital raise and the resulting drop would be the signal to consider it, perhaps around $1, as a lottery-style venture bet. x.comÂ
Twist Bioscience looks more like a bubble than an investment case, even though it could benefit as AI multiplies drug candidates and pushes value up the biotech chain. It led the 2021 biotech bubble and still loses money, so buyers pay for the story, not the business. The same AI thesis is simpler and cheaper to own in vertical market software, through serial acquirers such as Constellation Software and Topicus, which gain more acquisition targets as software gets cheaper to build. x.comÂ
Small- and mid-cap biotech looks like one of healthcare's more asymmetric setups after a four-year bear market, as AI speeds drug discovery and Big Pharma faces a patent cliff. Over $300B of pharma revenue goes off patent in the next few years, M&A is already ramping hard as pharma hunts for assets, and many small and mid-cap names still trade at reasonable valuations, making them potential takeover targets. x.comÂ
Recursion's $200m share offering buys time by extending its runway into 2029. At Q2's cash burn, the proceeds would fund less than two quarters. The attached chart marks an upside target near $6.67. x.comÂ
Kodiak Sciences looks very extended after a 150% jump on its data release, as the stock is baking in full success that will take time to deliver. It will also need to raise capital. This is a low-conviction short, serving as a hedge for other high-conviction longs. x.com x.comÂ
Richtech Robotics is too close to a lotto ticket because of persistently untrustworthy management, despite its potential and very small market cap. x.comÂ
Recursion Pharmaceuticals is set up for a short squeeze after breaking out of a falling wedge, with 174M shares sold short. Average volume over the last 10 days has fallen to 11.6M, pushing days to cover up to 15. x.comÂ
Nautilus Biotechnology remains too speculative and faces eventual Nasdaq delisting if it cannot hold above $1. A price floor just under $1 after its collapse looks technically supportive, and there are early signs of commercial interest, but it is still a wild card. x.comÂ
Alaunos Therapeutics' 40% jump on a bylaw quorum 8-K looks likely to fade. It is a $5.68M market-cap company with a 2.11M-share float and a history of $2M offerings, so dilution risk is high. Short interest is just 0.27%, so squeeze risk is minimal. x.comÂ
Recursion Pharmaceuticals could see huge catalysts from positive phase I and II news due in the second half of this year. Its AI drug-discovery platform has five clinical trials in progress, and big pharma and biopharma are spending billions on AI-driven platforms. Market research firms project 38-45% annual growth for AI genomics through the early 2030s. The stock found support around $3 and has some momentum. x.comÂ
Recursion Pharmaceuticals is a strong candidate to become a next-generation trillion-dollar company, as a drug factory that designs itself. Tomorrow's trillion-dollar companies are learning to read and write biology. x.comÂ
