Nike and Lululemon show why apparel brands almost always belong in the too-hard pile. Consumer tastes change on a whim and are hard to model, and missteps in keeping up can be the beginning of the end even for the hottest, most beloved brands. A new shirt is among the first things people cut, and structurally growing beyond brand awareness and store runways is extremely difficult. There are better places for time and money. x.com 

Lululemon, Nike, Under Armour and On look like cursed value traps because rising competition and unpredictable fashion trends keep eroding their positions. Lululemon has lost its niche dominance as the luxury standard and is now one of a dozen rivals, such as Vuori, Alo and Athleta, chasing the same buyers. Lululemon sits at six-year lows, Nike at 12-year lows, Under Armour at all-time lows and On back at 2022 levels. The products may still be good, but competition is overwhelming. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Nike's brand concerns look priced in; stabilization, not sudden revenue acceleration, is what the speculative long needs. A few good campaigns and a return to large stores could help, though China consumers will be a drag. Short-term EPS is a poor indicator, and customers may return after trying other brands. x.com  x.com 

Brands have no moat, only heat cycles, and Lululemon, at new 8-year lows alongside Nike at 12-year lows, is cooling. People will always buy new clothes to look good, but that requires freshness, and another pair of Lululemons no longer delivers it the way it did in 2020. Winning means spotting which stage a brand is in. x.com  x.com 

Lululemon is a stock to avoid around earnings, good or bad, as apparel names almost always are. Too many investors were fooled by its compounder story coming out of Covid. x.com 

Lululemon offers better risk/reward than Nike if it is not broken, trading below 5x EV/EBITDA versus Nike's 14x. Nike's turnaround through wholesale is very hard for a $50B revenue business facing strong rival brands, less product control, price competition and channel conflict across multiple product lines. Nike may have a better near-term chance of beating estimates and is a more evergreen brand, but Lululemon looks increasingly preferable. x.com  x.com 

Lululemon looks headed out of business as its customers move to Alo, and another earnings report hammered the stock. Suburban women now wear Alo, at least until they switch to the next shiny brand in a few years, which is why retail apparel is not a long-term investment. x.com 

Lululemon's problem is its pricing, not a weak consumer. Shoppers are fine but aren't buying its products because the prices no longer make sense, which spells trouble for its margins. x.com 

Nike, Snap, Netflix, Uber and SoFi are falling knives worth catching: awful sentiment, unbroken businesses. Nike, despite plenty to fix, is one of the world's strongest brands priced with deep pessimism. Snapchat has a massive audience, and if monetization catches up its valuation could look ridiculous. Netflix stock was crushed while free cash flow and profits rose. The market overlooks how fast Uber's earnings and cash flow scale, and SoFi keeps growing members, revenue and earnings. x.com  … Show more

Nike is still super expensive even if it pulls a magic trick on margins, and the stock has been a buy-the-dip nightmare because the brand became uncool. It can keep existing while slowly fading, which is a terrible investment case. x.com  x.com