A Fed rate hike is now the likelier outcome, and if it comes growth stocks could fall another 30-50% as they did in 2022. FedWatch shows a 63-66% chance of a hike and Kalshi 58%. Rising oil feeds inflation, tempting Fed chair Warsh to raise rates, which stocks generally dislike. Climbing 6-month, 10-year and 30-year yields raise the government's interest burden and money printing, while a VIX near 15 leaves room for volatility to spike. x.com  x.com  x.com 

QQQ's remaining earnings, macro and election hurdles set up one more dip to punish late chasers. The index looks good and is pricing in some good news today, but Amazon, Intel and SanDisk earnings plus PCE and GDP arrive tomorrow, followed by AMD earnings and elections Tuesday. Expect one more, probably modest, dip Wednesday or Thursday next week before November's upward seasonality takes effect. x.com 

The Nasdaq-100 looks set for a roughly 7% drop over the next month and a half, driven by expected election turmoil. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.2% and the dollar index at 101, and the setup rhymes with October 2018. The main risk is a flip higher from here or a move 3% above the previous all-time high; a short-term rip before the decline is possible amid month-end flows. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

The Nasdaq-100 is more likely to avoid a selloff after tomorrow's Fed decision than markets expect. A 25 bp hike is priced in; what isn't is whether more follow. A hike with a neutral tone, or no hike with a hawkish tone, would bring a choppy rally into the weekend; no hike with a neutral or dovish tone would bring a face-ripping rally; only a hike with a hawkish tone means a selloff. The lean is toward no hike, with the caveat that this could be very wrong. x.com 

The Nasdaq 100 looks set for a persistent uptrend after hitting a new record, which favors 3x leveraged exposure through TQQQ. After three choppy months, funds are refocusing on what matters while positioning and sentiment remain lopsided and weak, making a rise likelier than more chop and possibly another major bull run. Leveraged ETFs compound in steady uptrends but lose to friction in chop, as TQQQ's 136% gain against QQQ's 35% in April-May showed. Gulf tensions still need to end. x.com  x.com 

Nasdaq-100 stocks and NVIDIA look like a dip to buy because a 1%-plus gap down over a tweet doesn't add up given how resilient the market has been to data. Hotter-than-expected payrolls, slightly warm PPI and an 80% chance of a rate hike did not bring the market down, though yields did on Thursday, and stocks rose on in-line CPI. This is an initial read ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision. x.com 

Nasdaq-100 downside could accelerate if QQQ falls below $712: dealer positioning at $700 and $690 would fuel the move unless the index reclaims its moving averages and breaks upward. July and September FOMC lows remain untouched, something that has not persisted across two consecutive meetings; taking out at least one in the next week would not be surprising. x.com 

The Nasdaq 100 faces pressure from a more hawkish Fed vote. The Fed held rates, but the 9-3 vote was much worse than June's 12-0, with Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan dissenting in favor of a 25bp hike. The market had priced about a 25-33% chance of a hike, so it is hawkish on the margin but not as bad as an actual hike; Asia may panic over the dissents. x.com  x.com  x.com 

The Nasdaq 100's drop on OpenAI's scary news is an overreaction, and mega caps remain very healthy. AI bubble fears let market makers scare retail and buy behind closed doors. Once the index tests 736-738 as its 21-day moving average catches up, it should take off again toward 800, led by Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, Nvidia, AMD and TSMC. x.com  x.com 

The Nasdaq 100 is failing to make new highs alongside the S&P 500, the equal-weight S&P 500, the Russell 2000 and the NYSE Composite, which often signals growing risk under the hood. The setup resembles late 2024 to early 2025, and September and October are when weakness tends to take hold ahead of midterms, so the plan is to become more defensive. x.com