Architect of Alpha
Long-Term Stock Investor
Enbridge is regulated pipeline infrastructure rather than a commodity bet, moving about 30% of North America's crude and 20% of its natural gas, and its toll model and 6%-plus dividend yield are the long-term case. Q1 FY26 showed margin compression: revenue rose 21% to CAD 22.4B, but operating income fell 12% and EPS 26% to CAD 0.77. One quarter does not change the thesis, but it is worth noting. x.comÂ
Enbridge is an evergreen holding for Canadian investors because it is the king of monopolies. x.comÂ
Canadian Natural Resources deserves a premium: it has a 30+ year reserve life and grows production every year while spending significantly less on capex than depreciation. x.comÂ
PrimeEnergy trades around 6x normalized earnings because its reserve life is a huge unknown: about five years of proven reserves plus three more years of identified drilling, with little visibility beyond. It will probably outperform that long term, but near term it is mostly oil beta, with intermittent, unpredictable alpha. Better gas pricing once more takeaway capacity is online would help, since it gets only $0.75 for natural gas, and liquids output nearing 2 million barrels de-risks opex. … Show more
Venture Global's Q2 was very solid, with locked-in contracts setting up cheaper financing. Revenue of $4.587 billion missed on timing, but EPS beat, the dividend rose to $0.04 and full-year EBITDA guidance rose $500-600 million. Contracted cargoes reached 91% for 2026 and 75% for 2027, struck at elevated TTF prices. That take-or-pay cash flow enabled $5.3 billion of refinancing saving $100 million a year, and with Plaquemines Phase I due in Q4, it expects better credit ratings next year. x.com … Show more
Energy Transfer is an irreplaceable tollbooth yielding 6.7%, though as an MLP it is hard for offshore investors to buy and its K-1 tax forms are a drag. The conviction rests largely on a close friend, one of the best energy portfolio managers in the world, who made the case for it. x.comÂ
