Canadian Natural Resources deserves a premium: it has a 30+ year reserve life and grows production every year while spending significantly less on capex than depreciation. x.comÂ
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Canadian Natural Resources' slowly declining oil and gas reserves will last many years and give it very steady production. It generates a lot of cash even when markets are tough, has raised its dividend for 26 years in a row, and plans to return 100% of free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. x.comÂ
Canadian Natural Resources' long-term track record is hard to argue with, making it more compelling than Rogers. x.comÂ
Texas Pacific Land, Canadian Natural Resources and GTT stand out in energy because they have real competitive advantages in a sector of commodity price-takers. Texas Pacific Land owns land and collects royalties at 90%+ margins with almost no costs. Canadian Natural has decades of reserves and the industry's lowest decline rates, so it can generate cash even when oil prices tank. GTT is a true tech monopoly with 90% of its market: anyone moving LNG by sea pays it. x.comÂ
Oil producers and royalty companies such as Canadian Natural, Suncor, Freehold Royalties, Viper Energy and Obsidian Energy can make money without oil going higher, if prices stay elevated longer than the market expects, say through year end. Many are still valued on trailing free cash flow yields, realized prices and production rates, none of which reflect the current elevated spot price. x.comÂ
JEPQ, Canadian Natural Resources, Canadian Pacific Kansas City, Coca-Cola and VICI Properties combine high yield with dividend growth in a simple, diversified income portfolio yielding about 6.17%. JEPQ gives Nasdaq exposure with monthly dividends, Canadian Natural is an energy leader and Canadian Pacific Kansas City a literal railroad monopoly, while Coca-Cola and VICI offer super-predictable cash flows from soda and Las Vegas real estate. x.comÂ
Oil majors such as Shell, BP, ExxonMobil and Chevron deserve their multiples because they have consistently generated 10%+ returns across complete energy cycles. They are integrated, now diversified, and control a key commodity for decades ahead. Investors will do fine if they hold for the long term. x.comÂ
Canadian heavy crude is no longer captive to US refiners now that the Trans Mountain Expansion ships it to Asia, narrowing Western Canadian Select discounts and locking in long-haul Pacific tanker routes. About 77% of Westridge exports now go to Asia as buyers diversify from Middle East risk. MEG Energy has the most leverage to narrower heavy discounts; Canadian Natural, Cenovus and Suncor gain via pipeline capacity and Asian trading desks; Teekay Tankers and Frontline via Pacific vessel demand. … Show more
Enbridge is regulated pipeline infrastructure rather than a commodity bet, moving about 30% of North America's crude and 20% of its natural gas, and its toll model and 6%-plus dividend yield are the long-term case. Q1 FY26 showed margin compression: revenue rose 21% to CAD 22.4B, but operating income fell 12% and EPS 26% to CAD 0.77. One quarter does not change the thesis, but it is worth noting. x.comÂ
Occidental Petroleum is mispriced at about 8.4x trailing earnings and an 8.7% free cash flow yield during an oil shock. Eight times earnings in an oil shock is not a valuation but a clerical error with a ticker symbol. Iran cannot beat the US Navy, so it is waiting out America's vote in 49 days, since Iran does not vote until 2028; owning Occidental beats hiding in Treasuries. x.comÂ
US energy stocks are being steadily accumulated after a 17-year base, and that base will not resolve in a month. The sector broke out this year and pulled back on contracting volume, which is digestion, not distribution. Energy trades near 13x earnings versus about 20x for hyperscalers. Stocks now rise with oil and get bought back when oil falls. Tech is priced for the cost of capital to come down; energy for the reason it will not. x.com x.com x.comÂ