US crude and Chevron face a potential domestic glut: supertanker export costs are said to have risen from $8 million to $80 million, pushing Asian and European buyers toward Saudi and South American oil. Limited US refining capacity could leave the surplus unused and bankrupt smaller producers, though the author still says earlier exports caused a shortage. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Tanker companies such as International Seaways, Teekay Tankers, Nordic American, Okeanis Eco, DHT and Scorpio Tankers are a boring, underrated sector nobody talks about. Tankers are an absolute necessity, and while not a glamorous business like AI, they still produce great returns. x.com 

Tanker rates will likely plummet within two years and stay down for ten as new supply overwhelms demand, hurting Frontline, Teekay Tankers and Scorpio Tankers. Per Hedgeye, oil supertanker orders have hit a new all-time high, and tanker managements just can't help themselves. x.com 

Texas Pacific Land, Canadian Natural Resources and GTT stand out in energy because they have real competitive advantages in a sector of commodity price-takers. Texas Pacific Land owns land and collects royalties at 90%+ margins with almost no costs. Canadian Natural has decades of reserves and the industry's lowest decline rates, so it can generate cash even when oil prices tank. GTT is a true tech monopoly with 90% of its market: anyone moving LNG by sea pays it. x.com 

Oil refiners look too late to chase because they are over-earning, and margins will likely compress down the line. Refiners ran as Chinese utilization fell about 40% and 40% of Russian capacity went offline because of the war, pushing product-versus-crude margins to all-time highs of $80-100. Oil services names such as SLB look better placed to benefit. x.com 

Canadian Natural Resources deserves a premium: it has a 30+ year reserve life and grows production every year while spending significantly less on capex than depreciation. x.com 

Teekay Tankers looks cheap against its earnings. At $100.83 it trades at 6x earnings versus the 14x oil and gas midstream operators usually get, and 35% below a $154.76-196.97 fair value range based on 14x mid-cycle EPS of $12.56. Its forward P/E is 9.3x. x.com 

Canadian Natural Resources' slowly declining oil and gas reserves will last many years and give it very steady production. It generates a lot of cash even when markets are tough, has raised its dividend for 26 years in a row, and plans to return 100% of free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. x.com 

Crude oil looks set to rise sharply in the short term as Saudi supply disruptions worsen. Per @KobeissiLetter, citing Reuters, Saudi Arabia suspended loadings at Yanbu, its main Red Sea port exporting up to 5 million barrels a day, after attacks on its East-West pipeline, with Brent near $110. Per @HormuzLetter, Saudi Aramco cancelled its September European allocations, with no Saudi cargoes to Europe until November. The big move likely comes within the next couple of days. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

ZIM and Frontline could gain as blocked traditional shipping routes raise the value of alternatives. The disrupted oil supply chain is already hurting economies, and if it is not resolved within days, inflation will spike. Escalation into longer disruptions, more combat or a ground invasion would deepen both the economic damage and fear. The move in these shipping names has already started but could be only the beginning. x.com