Techquity
Technology Investor, Fundamental Research
Texas Pacific Land, Canadian Natural Resources and GTT stand out in energy because they have real competitive advantages in a sector of commodity price-takers. Texas Pacific Land owns land and collects royalties at 90%+ margins with almost no costs. Canadian Natural has decades of reserves and the industry's lowest decline rates, so it can generate cash even when oil prices tank. GTT is a true tech monopoly with 90% of its market: anyone moving LNG by sea pays it. x.comÂ
Texas Pacific Land is a high-quality business worth accumulating for the long term as its land gains a higher-value use in data centers and power generation. Its unannounced data-center project, Project North on Buck Nail Ranch, uncovered through scuttlebutt research, could send the stock back toward its highs near $530 once announced. Land is a perpetual asset that grows scarcer and can serve progressively higher-value functions, per Murray Stahl, who bought shares near $330 in January. x.comÂ
Texas Pacific Land gets a tailwind for its royalty stream as oil spikes on renewed Iran tensions. The stock fell from about $450 to $375 on fear tied to a headline about a major shareholder, not anything fundamental. Its water-treatment business is a growth story most investors are not yet pricing, with a national-security angle on top. A pullback near $400 would be a buying opportunity. x.com x.comÂ
Texas Pacific Land is not a buy here because energy is much closer to a top than a bottom in terms of panic. It would need to fall about $100 further, or energy stocks would need to drop back to earlier lows, before it is worth buying. Energy should be bought amid pessimism and belief in a never-ending glut, typically after an economic calamity sends oil down big, not during a war with Iran. @jc_tricky counters that the energy sector's breakout above 20-year resistance makes those lows unlikely. … Show more
Canadian Natural Resources deserves a premium: it has a 30+ year reserve life and grows production every year while spending significantly less on capex than depreciation. x.comÂ
Texas Pacific Land is the ultimate toll booth stock, collecting royalties when others drill on its 900,000 Permian acres while oil companies spend billions drilling wells and fighting decline. Its fast-growing water business also scales with Permian drilling activity, making it a boring bargain that helps investors sleep at night. x.comÂ
Canadian Natural Resources' long-term track record is hard to argue with, making it more compelling than Rogers. x.comÂ
Venture Global seems to offer the most torque to LNG fundamentals, with significant damage to Gulf LNG infrastructure and an exceptional natural gas setup. Seasonal strength, LNG and data center demand and the Middle East energy crisis support gas from a $3 start, with commercials max long and one heat wave from $10 Henry Hub. Gas companies trade on the strip, so they gain from rising prices even when gas funds lose to contango. The project seems viable, with positive news flow. x.com x.com … Show more
Gaztransport & Technigaz can become a steady compounder as LNG demand surges. Its business is engineering and temperature-control expertise rather than commodity exposure, which makes it attractive. x.comÂ
Oil producers and royalty companies such as Canadian Natural, Suncor, Freehold Royalties, Viper Energy and Obsidian Energy can make money without oil going higher, if prices stay elevated longer than the market expects, say through year end. Many are still valued on trailing free cash flow yields, realized prices and production rates, none of which reflect the current elevated spot price. x.comÂ
NextDecade's LNG export potential could make the next five years something special, and the long-term thesis is sound. @RealMattMoney and @KrisPatel99 have been correct on it from a long-term perspective; @RealMattMoney calls it the most asymmetric bet in the stock market. x.comÂ
