Steven Fiorillo
Seeking Alpha Analyst, Basis Point Podcast Co-Host
NextDecade's low equity stake in its projects is mainly a near-term issue: it owns a smaller share of its near-term LNG trains but will own a much larger share of trains 6-10. That answers a critic who called it a pump-and-dump SPAC with low equity in its projects and distant completion. x.comÂ
Venture Global and NextDecade are reasonable 5-10 year investments from current levels because the US has strong motivation to export more LNG. They are certainly volatile, but companies that show excellence in execution always have a long-term edge. x.comÂ
Expand Energy is cheap and pays a good dividend while it waits for its day, and US LNG is in a prime position with Russian and Middle East LNG supplies threatened. The weekly chart is breaking out of a bullish falling wedge within an expanding symmetrical wedge, though the stock is still well below its 30-week EMA, so this is no reason to get too excited yet. x.comÂ
Imperial Petroleum and StealthGas should do well as natural gas demand increases. Both are so cheap that they are low risk, though there may be better ways to play the theme. x.comÂ
Venture Global seems to offer the most torque to LNG fundamentals, with significant damage to Gulf LNG infrastructure and an exceptional natural gas setup. Seasonal strength, LNG and data center demand and the Middle East energy crisis support gas from a $3 start, with commercials max long and one heat wave from $10 Henry Hub. Gas companies trade on the strip, so they gain from rising prices even when gas funds lose to contango. The project seems viable, with positive news flow. x.com x.com … Show more
Venture Global's Q2 was very solid, with locked-in contracts setting up cheaper financing. Revenue of $4.587 billion missed on timing, but EPS beat, the dividend rose to $0.04 and full-year EBITDA guidance rose $500-600 million. Contracted cargoes reached 91% for 2026 and 75% for 2027, struck at elevated TTF prices. That take-or-pay cash flow enabled $5.3 billion of refinancing saving $100 million a year, and with Plaquemines Phase I due in Q4, it expects better credit ratings next year. x.com … Show more
EQT has convexity because low investment in natural gas collides with rising LNG and datacenter demand. The gas basin isn't that deep. x.comÂ
Venture Global is now quite a good story because it will have enough free cash flow to keep debt down while executing its long-term plan. Once locked-in underlying free cash flow tops $10 billion, risk falls by definition, and EBITDA could reach about $30 billion over the next three years, with far more production by 2029. Industry fees are rising with construction costs, so a $2.15 new-build baseline looks low. @ShaleTier7, whom the author answers, sees only about $2.2B a year contracted today. … Show more
Texas Pacific Land, Canadian Natural Resources and GTT stand out in energy because they have real competitive advantages in a sector of commodity price-takers. Texas Pacific Land owns land and collects royalties at 90%+ margins with almost no costs. Canadian Natural has decades of reserves and the industry's lowest decline rates, so it can generate cash even when oil prices tank. GTT is a true tech monopoly with 90% of its market: anyone moving LNG by sea pays it. x.comÂ
Antero, Expand Energy and Comstock sit on a timing gap as AI-driven gas demand arrives in a concentrated burst rather than a smooth ramp. Turbines, not gas, have been scarce: orders surged in 2024-2025 with three-to-five-year lead times, so the first large batch should arrive within about a year, often at behind-the-meter sites near gas fields. Buyers avoiding turbine waits are turning to mass-producible reciprocating engines that also burn gas. Storage, drilling and pipelines have grown slowly. … Show more