Crude oil and the XLE energy-sector ETF would be buys on a pullback because uncertainty over a real military strike could hang over the US market from the midterms through year-end. Only an actual strike or a true peace deal would settle that uncertainty. x.com 

Extreme bullishness about an oil shortage is a warning because oil has tended to return to around $50 within 12-18 months after such talk. Calls for a 'great oil repricing' appeared today, though they may not be widespread enough yet to mark the same setup. x.com  x.com 

Texas Pacific Land gets a tailwind for its royalty stream as oil spikes on renewed Iran tensions. The stock fell from about $450 to $375 on fear tied to a headline about a major shareholder, not anything fundamental. Its water-treatment business is a growth story most investors are not yet pricing, with a national-security angle on top. A pullback near $400 would be a buying opportunity. x.com  x.com 

TIPS signal deep deflation as collapsing demand outweighs higher oil prices, and losing key support opens a path to 2008-2009 lows. TIPS peaked with inflation in Q4 2021 and have fallen since, as have many stocks that peaked then, such as McDonald's, Nike, Lululemon, PepsiCo, Louis Vuitton and Dollar General. Higher oil is exacerbating deflation rather than driving inflation, even as nominal Treasury yields rise with oil. x.com 

Lower oil prices are good for Amazon. x.com 

Texas Pacific Land is a high-quality business worth accumulating for the long term as its land gains a higher-value use in data centers and power generation. Its unannounced data-center project, Project North on Buck Nail Ranch, uncovered through scuttlebutt research, could send the stock back toward its highs near $530 once announced. Land is a perpetual asset that grows scarcer and can serve progressively higher-value functions, per Murray Stahl, who bought shares near $330 in January. x.com 

MPLX is an oil and gas play with a 7.7% dividend and a strong chart. x.com 

Riley Exploration Permian is unattractive because its hedge book is bad and not small, its acreage is poor, and its reserve life is low. x.com 

Texas Pacific Land, Canadian Natural Resources and GTT stand out in energy because they have real competitive advantages in a sector of commodity price-takers. Texas Pacific Land owns land and collects royalties at 90%+ margins with almost no costs. Canadian Natural has decades of reserves and the industry's lowest decline rates, so it can generate cash even when oil prices tank. GTT is a true tech monopoly with 90% of its market: anyone moving LNG by sea pays it. x.com 

Occidental Petroleum is mispriced at about 8.4x trailing earnings and an 8.7% free cash flow yield during an oil shock. Eight times earnings in an oil shock is not a valuation but a clerical error with a ticker symbol. Iran cannot beat the US Navy, so it is waiting out America's vote in 49 days, since Iran does not vote until 2028; owning Occidental beats hiding in Treasuries. x.com