Riley Exploration Permian is unattractive because its hedge book is bad and not small, its acreage is poor, and its reserve life is low. x.comÂ
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Infinity Natural Resources' lower trailing EV/EBITDA than Appalachian peers supports its value case. It trades at 4x versus 5-7x for EQT, Range Resources, CNX and Antero, while its P/E is 5 and trailing EBITDAX is $366 million. A somewhat bullish outlook for natural gas prices also underpins the view that Appalachian E&Ps offer value. x.comÂ
EOG Resources is deeply undervalued on EV/EBITDA, a big discount given where oil prices are now, and the chart looks strong. x.comÂ
Texas Pacific Land is the ultimate toll booth stock, collecting royalties when others drill on its 900,000 Permian acres while oil companies spend billions drilling wells and fighting decline. Its fast-growing water business also scales with Permian drilling activity, making it a boring bargain that helps investors sleep at night. x.comÂ
Texas Pacific Land is not a buy here because energy is much closer to a top than a bottom in terms of panic. It would need to fall about $100 further, or energy stocks would need to drop back to earlier lows, before it is worth buying. Energy should be bought amid pessimism and belief in a never-ending glut, typically after an economic calamity sends oil down big, not during a war with Iran. @jc_tricky counters that the energy sector's breakout above 20-year resistance makes those lows unlikely. … Show more
Canadian Natural Resources' slowly declining oil and gas reserves will last many years and give it very steady production. It generates a lot of cash even when markets are tough, has raised its dividend for 26 years in a row, and plans to return 100% of free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. x.comÂ
Ecopetrol is burdened by bad management, government-set gas prices, a CEO under investigation and workers wanting to strike. A small short also hedges against the risk of a Cepeda win in Colombia's presidential election, which has turned into a nail-biter. x.com x.comÂ
Occidental Petroleum looks cheap against its sales, trading 32% below the low end of a $88.24-$112.30 fair-value range set at about 5 times mid-cycle sales. It carries a PEG of 0.87 and a forward P/E of 15.7x, and would only look expensive above $105.52. These are valuation levels from reported earnings and revenue estimates, not fundamental work. x.comÂ
Devon Energy trades at 11x earnings and a 12% free-cash-flow yield while set to return roughly 10% of its market cap to shareholders each year. The Coterra merger adds 4,600 Delaware drilling locations, half with sub-$40 breakevens, and $1B of annual synergies on top of an $850M cost program that is 85% done; per-barrel operating costs fell every quarter of 2025. While Big Tech's capex ratios climb toward utility levels, Devon beats production guidance while spending less. x.comÂ