Texas Pacific Land gets a tailwind for its royalty stream as oil spikes on renewed Iran tensions. The stock fell from about $450 to $375 on fear tied to a headline about a major shareholder, not anything fundamental. Its water-treatment business is a growth story most investors are not yet pricing, with a national-security angle on top. A pullback near $400 would be a buying opportunity. x.com  x.com 

Texas Pacific Land is the best royalty business in the world. x.com 

Texas Pacific Land is not a buy here because energy is much closer to a top than a bottom in terms of panic. It would need to fall about $100 further, or energy stocks would need to drop back to earlier lows, before it is worth buying. Energy should be bought amid pessimism and belief in a never-ending glut, typically after an economic calamity sends oil down big, not during a war with Iran. @jc_tricky counters that the energy sector's breakout above 20-year resistance makes those lows unlikely. … Show more

Texas Pacific Land is a high-quality business worth accumulating for the long term as its land gains a higher-value use in data centers and power generation. Its unannounced data-center project, Project North on Buck Nail Ranch, uncovered through scuttlebutt research, could send the stock back toward its highs near $530 once announced. Land is a perpetual asset that grows scarcer and can serve progressively higher-value functions, per Murray Stahl, who bought shares near $330 in January. x.com 

Texas Pacific Land, Canadian Natural Resources and GTT stand out in energy because they have real competitive advantages in a sector of commodity price-takers. Texas Pacific Land owns land and collects royalties at 90%+ margins with almost no costs. Canadian Natural has decades of reserves and the industry's lowest decline rates, so it can generate cash even when oil prices tank. GTT is a true tech monopoly with 90% of its market: anyone moving LNG by sea pays it. x.com 

Cross Timbers Royalty Trust converts incremental royalty revenue disproportionately into distributable income, and its market cap may not reflect the latent value of its 90% net profits interests. These span the Permian, Anadarko and San Juan Basins, with recent horizontal permitting and development, and burden Texas Sand Hills properties next to another prolific producer. SoftVest Advisors' ~16% stake could unlock value, though the thesis, co-authored with @athelascapital, stands without it. … Show more

LandBridge is one of the most overlooked AI infrastructure plays, since AI data centers need land, power and fiber and it owns over 270,000 acres in the Permian. The land earns recurring lease revenue at 99% gross margins, which could make it a quiet compounder like Texas Pacific Land; the stock is coiling in a tight 20-month base. Converting from a Delaware LLC to a Texas corporation could ease index inclusion and broaden ownership, a positive but not a reason to buy alone. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Occidental Petroleum is mispriced at about 8.4x trailing earnings and an 8.7% free cash flow yield during an oil shock. Eight times earnings in an oil shock is not a valuation but a clerical error with a ticker symbol. Iran cannot beat the US Navy, so it is waiting out America's vote in 49 days, since Iran does not vote until 2028; owning Occidental beats hiding in Treasuries. x.com 

Riley Exploration Permian is unattractive because its hedge book is bad and not small, its acreage is poor, and its reserve life is low. x.com 

EROK looks like a low-risk buy as a debt-free, land-owning royalty business with little representation in major indexes, so it adds no meaningful systemic risk. The case only breaks if the world stops needing oil, the basins run dry, or AI no longer needs land, water and natural gas, all of which seem unlikely. x.com