Ian Bezek
Investor/Writer, Latin American Equities, Former Analyst at Kerrisdale
South American political unpredictability keeps investors from rewarding MercadoLibre's excellent fundamentals. Today's selloff illustrates that risk, despite the strength of the business. x.com x.comÂ
GeoPark offers high-beta upside to oil prices now that Colombia's elections are past. It fits a strategy of positioning for a longer Middle East conflict, since no one knows how long it lasts or its long-term impact on energy prices, while sticking to names that work with $70 oil. x.comÂ
Riley Exploration Permian is unattractive because its hedge book is bad and not small, its acreage is poor, and its reserve life is low. x.comÂ
Crude oil prices are likely headed lower as a Venezuela deal covering 65 billion barrels and $100 billion, plus a new strait being dug on the Omani side, open up supply. That doesn't sink every oil stock: refiners and midstream services stand to benefit, and Halliburton could gain greatly from years of rehab work across 17 Venezuelan fields, where it already has a subsidiary and is reportedly in talks to supply equipment and services. x.comÂ
US energy stocks remain the trade because the Iran war keeps hitting oil supply; it is not a dip-buying chance in tech. Iran struck more Persian Gulf energy sites, including the Fujairah bypass route, erasing Monday's relief rally and lifting Brent back above $104. Hormuz is still contested, tanker insurance stays high, and the IEA's record 400 million-barrel release did not stop the climb. Chevron, Marathon Petroleum, Valero, Occidental and Phillips 66 held green as stock futures fell. x.com … Show more
European refiners Repsol and OMV offer better risk/reward and could rally sharply if the US imposes export curbs. x.comÂ
Natural gas leaders such as EQT face a structural shift, because about 20% of world supply is offline for three to five years with no quick fix. De-escalation doesn't change that, so market fakeouts should create opportunities in the group, with EQT attractive below $60. x.comÂ
Occidental Petroleum's reputation was wrecked by former CEO Vicki Hollub, and it has not been worth buying at any point in the past six years. The Anadarko acquisition came at peak 2019 oil prices and was far too large; Berkshire's 8% cumulative perpetual preferred deal helped avoid a shareholder vote. Occidental went from an A-rated balance sheet to about three years of junk status, losing 18 years of dividend increases. Buy-and-hold oil and gas only offers alpha 2-3 times a decade. x.com x.comÂ