Oil prices should decline as a deal for Venezuelan oil fields, which hold the world's largest crude reserves at 17-18%, adds supply. Oil already fell 4% last week. x.com 

Crude oil faces a strong bearish headwind from potential new supply, as the Trump administration is reportedly close to a deal for ownership stakes in Venezuelan oil fields that US officials estimate could more than double US reserves. A textbook double top on the daily chart has price rejecting resistance and accelerating lower. The downside target is the 200-day EMA, where a bounce could follow if institutional buyers defend it. x.com 

Crude oil is being pushed higher by design: the main purpose of the conflict is to raise oil prices so that Venezuelan oil, which costs $20-40 a barrel to produce, can be sold at a profit. Venezuela's production had been very low because its costs were almost equal to the oil price. x.com 

Crude oil's price floor is well below $70 a barrel now that Iran is under control and Venezuela is pumping oil. x.com 

Crude oil now has more room to fall on a deal headline than to rise on the status quo, as Trump's rejection of Iran's seven-day Hormuz plan looks like a negotiating position, with negotiators due back this week and the Saudi foreign minister in Washington. The closed Strait put Brent back at $108 with Nov–Dec backwardation near $8. Speculators added shorts three weeks running, squeeze fuel above $100 if talks fail; a deal would leave about 101,828 contracts of net length as supply. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil should reprice higher because the Iran conflict looks like a multi-year regime, not a short event, and no model carries a 2029 duration. The WSJ reported Vance and Rubio privately warned Trump it could last through his presidency, while the White House floats the biggest naval blockade in history. August PPI rose 5.4% year on year, above estimates, before any blockade effect. Houthis took Mocha and are moving on Bab al-Mandeb, with Brent above $100; $120 talk is the early repricing. … Show more

Oil prices should drop further as the Iran conflict winds down, which will likely make the Fed more dovish. x.com 

Oil will come down significantly, because Trump will eventually make a deal with Iran and put the conflict to bed. x.com 

Crude oil's safety buffer is draining at a record pace, so the next supply shock will hit a market with far less protection. The Iran war and near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz have removed over 1 billion barrels of supply, and Morgan Stanley estimates stockpiles fell about 4.8 million barrels a day from March 1 to April 25, a record. A record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves have been pledged, and inventories are near 2018 lows. Even if Hormuz reopens, restocking will add demand. … Show more

More oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz and continued OPEC and Russian production should push crude oil lower. It has fallen from about $106 to $96 over the past month. x.com