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Crude oil is being pushed higher by design: the main purpose of the conflict is to raise oil prices so that Venezuelan oil, which costs $20-40 a barrel to produce, can be sold at a profit. Venezuela's production had been very low because its costs were almost equal to the oil price. x.comÂ
Crude oil is headed for $150 a barrel, with the S&P 500 set to fall 25%. A string of US refinery and oil and gas infrastructure outages, such as the Colonial Pipeline incident flagged by @BankerWeimar, is striking as it coincides with a war in the Middle East. x.com x.comÂ
Crude oil's last cushion is gone as recovering demand squeezes constrained Middle East supply. Barclays puts China imports near pre-war levels at 10.5m b/d, India up 600,000 b/d year on year and Middle East flows at 84% of pre-war levels; US demand is recovering. After more than 500m barrels of inventory were drawn down, buyers are paying a $13/bbl premium for next-week cargoes over the front-month contract, versus under $4 a week into the war. x.comÂ
Crude oil prices are likely headed lower as a Venezuela deal covering 65 billion barrels and $100 billion, plus a new strait being dug on the Omani side, open up supply. That doesn't sink every oil stock: refiners and midstream services stand to benefit, and Halliburton could gain greatly from years of rehab work across 17 Venezuelan fields, where it already has a subsidiary and is reportedly in talks to supply equipment and services. x.comÂ
Daily attacks on Saudi energy installations, seemingly at will, are a bigger driver of oil's rise than Hormuz. If they escalate and meaningfully damage Saudi production, $200 oil isn't impossible. x.comÂ
Crude oil regains a geopolitical premium after the US revoked its Iran oil-sale waiver on July 7, putting Iranian supply back under sanctions after July 17. Supply can't normalize fast: Hormuz is only partly open, Gulf facilities are damaged and OPEC output has fallen, while US summer driving supports demand. Oil's price center may rise from about $67 a barrel in 2025 to above $70. Goldman's cut to $75 Brent for 2027 and weak 2026 demand remain risks. x.comÂ
Crude oil's price floor is well below $70 a barrel now that Iran is under control and Venezuela is pumping oil. x.comÂ
Crude oil could jump toward $130-140 if a strike takes Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub, offline and removes a large chunk of supply at once. Iran would likely retaliate beyond military targets with regional proxies, widening the conflict. Even the risk of disrupted exports or unsafe shipping could push prices sharply higher in thin weekend liquidity as shipping slows and insurance spikes. By Monday, oil and energy-linked assets would be repriced higher and inflation expectations reset. … Show more
Crude oil is going through a real-time supply-chain repricing, not just a headline scare. Crossings are at zero, Brent is at $100, Aramco is rerouting to Sidi Kerir, and diversions around the Cape of Good Hope add weeks to delivery. x.comÂ
Oil prices should decline as a deal for Venezuelan oil fields, which hold the world's largest crude reserves at 17-18%, adds supply. Oil already fell 4% last week. x.comÂ
Oil should rise and stocks fall over the next two weeks as the Iran war escalates further. Trump ordered the military not to carry out planned strikes on Iran, per Axios, yet the conflict looks set to intensify. Megacap earnings probably won't save the market, since it is punishing negative free cash flow. x.com x.com x.comÂ
