Joe
Full-Time Trader/Investor, Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Inflection Points
EQT is still a favored gas play, and not too late, because Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG hub is badly disrupted. EQT raised hedging to nearly 40% of 2026 production at an average floor near $4.30/MMBtu and ceiling near $6.30, a tactical approach that adds protection selectively while staying exposed to upside. x.com x.comÂ
EQT has convexity because low investment in natural gas collides with rising LNG and datacenter demand. The gas basin isn't that deep. x.comÂ
Energy stocks remain undervalued because shale depletion is real and AI needs natural gas, and the market is underpricing both. Diamondback Energy has quietly been doing tender offers ahead of its May 4 earnings, and EQT's 3.84% drop does not change the thesis. Value takes time. x.comÂ
Infinity Natural Resources' lower trailing EV/EBITDA than Appalachian peers supports its value case. It trades at 4x versus 5-7x for EQT, Range Resources, CNX and Antero, while its P/E is 5 and trailing EBITDAX is $366 million. A somewhat bullish outlook for natural gas prices also underpins the view that Appalachian E&Ps offer value. x.comÂ
The Iran war could be a huge catalyst for US energy stocks as energy independence becomes a necessity rather than a luxury. Nuclear names Constellation Energy, Vistra, Centrus and Cameco combine energy security with massive AI power demand, while natural-gas names Cheniere, EQT and Antero gain from LNG demand and tighter global supply. x.comÂ
The natural gas crisis will not end with the Strait of Hormuz reopening or de-escalation, because Qatar's gas infrastructure will take years to rebuild. That supports natural gas directly and Adecoagro indirectly. x.comÂ
Natural gas faces a real but temporary 2027-2030 price spike as LNG and AI demand outrun buildout lead times, rather than Chronometer's structural, permanent rise. That mechanism is sound and little disputed on timing: processing takes 2-3 years and new frac capacity is unlikely before late 2028-2029. But Chronometer's export and depletion assumptions clash with 2025-26 data, as Haynesville output grew about 2.4 Bcf/d at roughly $4 gas. Rebalancing should follow once capacity catches up. x.com … Show more
Natural gas is the real Middle East time bomb, not oil: Iran's retaliation knocked out 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity for three to five years. LNG terminals are costly and take years to rebuild, and producers are far fewer than in oil. Japan, South Korea, China and much of Europe rely on LNG imports for inelastic heating, and European stocks are at historic lows. If Hormuz stays shut or more Qatari plants are hit, buyers turn to the US, the top exporter, and Cheniere; prices could go vertical. … Show more
Natural gas is where the real squeeze lies if the strike on Iran's Pars region knocks out supply. South Pars/North Dome, shared with Qatar, is the world's largest gas reservoir, feeding Europe, Asia and global LNG. Europe is lean on storage into winter, Asia is fighting for every spare cargo, and the US becomes the only reliable alternative supplier. Henry Hub has been sleepy, but that changes fast with 40% of global LNG in question; the next 72 hours decide whether this is contained. x.comÂ
Venture Global seems to offer the most torque to LNG fundamentals, with significant damage to Gulf LNG infrastructure and an exceptional natural gas setup. Seasonal strength, LNG and data center demand and the Middle East energy crisis support gas from a $3 start, with commercials max long and one heat wave from $10 Henry Hub. Gas companies trade on the strip, so they gain from rising prices even when gas funds lose to contango. The project seems viable, with positive news flow. x.com x.com … Show more