TheValueist
Discretionary Long/Short Investor, TMT/Energy, Convexity & Factor Awareness
EQT is still a favored gas play, and not too late, because Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG hub is badly disrupted. EQT raised hedging to nearly 40% of 2026 production at an average floor near $4.30/MMBtu and ceiling near $6.30, a tactical approach that adds protection selectively while staying exposed to upside. x.com x.comÂ
EQT has convexity because low investment in natural gas collides with rising LNG and datacenter demand. The gas basin isn't that deep. x.comÂ
Natural gas leaders such as EQT face a structural shift, because about 20% of world supply is offline for three to five years with no quick fix. De-escalation doesn't change that, so market fakeouts should create opportunities in the group, with EQT attractive below $60. x.comÂ
Energy stocks remain undervalued because shale depletion is real and AI needs natural gas, and the market is underpricing both. Diamondback Energy has quietly been doing tender offers ahead of its May 4 earnings, and EQT's 3.84% drop does not change the thesis. Value takes time. x.comÂ
Infinity Natural Resources' lower trailing EV/EBITDA than Appalachian peers supports its value case. It trades at 4x versus 5-7x for EQT, Range Resources, CNX and Antero, while its P/E is 5 and trailing EBITDAX is $366 million. A somewhat bullish outlook for natural gas prices also underpins the view that Appalachian E&Ps offer value. x.comÂ
Cheniere Energy's contracted cash flow and repeatedly raised guidance support the view that its breakout holds. Its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guide has risen for the third time this year to $8.75-$9.25 billion, from $6.75-$7.25 billion initially; distributable cash flow guidance also rose, and the last Corpus Christi Stage 3 train is complete. x.comÂ
Equinor's earnings reacceleration and role supplying Europe's gas support a core long-term energy holding. The attached analysis estimates 129% EPS growth in 2026 and an 8.99 forward P/E, alongside strong technical momentum. Conflict involving Qatar or LNG supply disruption could increase the value of Norwegian gas to Europe. x.comÂ
Epsilon Energy is uninteresting now because its natural gas windfall window has passed and its pivot to oil is poorly timed. It burned through reserves waiting for a gas recovery after prices fell in 2022, then made a mediocre acquisition and is plowing oil capex into a heavily backwardated curve. Its midstream asset is diluted, SG&A is bloated, and incentives and hedges are poor. Oil above $80 to lock in, stronger gas, organic reserve growth or a price of $5.50 or lower would change that. x.comÂ
Cheniere Energy rises the longer the Hormuz crisis lasts, because Iranian strikes crippled 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity, and QatarEnergy's CEO says two major trains will be offline for three to five years. Even if the Strait reopens, the market is structurally short 12.8 million tons a year, making Cheniere's Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion very valuable. If Hormuz stays shut six months, Wood Mackenzie sees JKM at $45-55/mmBtu, implying $500+ for Cheniere and $62+ for Venture Global. … Show more
The natural gas crisis will not end with the Strait of Hormuz reopening or de-escalation, because Qatar's gas infrastructure will take years to rebuild. That supports natural gas directly and Adecoagro indirectly. x.comÂ
EQT, Range Resources, Expand Energy, Magnolia Oil & Gas and EOG Resources are cyclicals catching an earnings tailwind before the crowd notices, the setup Peter Lynch loved. They passed a screen alongside Coterra, all natural gas or oil producers with disciplined balance sheets and forward P/Es of 9-12. x.comÂ
