Venu
Position Trader, Market Leaders, Fundamental/Technical Analysis
EQT, Range Resources, Expand Energy, Magnolia Oil & Gas and EOG Resources are cyclicals catching an earnings tailwind before the crowd notices, the setup Peter Lynch loved. They passed a screen alongside Coterra, all natural gas or oil producers with disciplined balance sheets and forward P/Es of 9-12. x.comÂ
Low forward earnings multiples alongside strong investor sentiment put these S&P 500 stocks atop the smart-value ranking. APA, Viatris, EOG, Marathon Petroleum, Valero, Phillips 66, Allstate, Diamondback, Everest and Centene trade at 6-15x forward earnings after one-year gains of 17-150%; the accompanying ranking also weighs free-cash-flow yield and momentum. x.comÂ
Infinity Natural Resources' lower trailing EV/EBITDA than Appalachian peers supports its value case. It trades at 4x versus 5-7x for EQT, Range Resources, CNX and Antero, while its P/E is 5 and trailing EBITDAX is $366 million. A somewhat bullish outlook for natural gas prices also underpins the view that Appalachian E&Ps offer value. x.comÂ
EOG Resources is cheap against its sales, with fair value at $221.66 to $282.12, or 5x mid-cycle sales give or take 12%. At $141.31 it trades 36% below the low end of fair, with a pullback zone at $115.65. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.comÂ
EOG Resources is deeply undervalued on EV/EBITDA, a big discount given where oil prices are now, and the chart looks strong. x.comÂ
Petrobras leads this week's EWT Growth Leaders because of surging earnings and sales in the leading energy group. It ranks #1 with a 91 score and A rating: last-quarter EPS rose 121% year over year, sales 60%, and annual EPS 191%. A breakout above 26.42 or a fourth-wave pullback to 24.3-23.0 offers a setup for a projected fifth wave to 32.8-33.2. x.comÂ
EQT has convexity because low investment in natural gas collides with rising LNG and datacenter demand. The gas basin isn't that deep. x.comÂ
EQT is still a favored gas play, and not too late, because Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG hub is badly disrupted. EQT raised hedging to nearly 40% of 2026 production at an average floor near $4.30/MMBtu and ceiling near $6.30, a tactical approach that adds protection selectively while staying exposed to upside. x.com x.comÂ
Expand Energy is cheap and pays a good dividend while it waits for its day, and US LNG is in a prime position with Russian and Middle East LNG supplies threatened. The weekly chart is breaking out of a bullish falling wedge within an expanding symmetrical wedge, though the stock is still well below its 30-week EMA, so this is no reason to get too excited yet. x.comÂ
Occidental Petroleum is mispriced at about 8.4x trailing earnings and an 8.7% free cash flow yield during an oil shock. Eight times earnings in an oil shock is not a valuation but a clerical error with a ticker symbol. Iran cannot beat the US Navy, so it is waiting out America's vote in 49 days, since Iran does not vote until 2028; owning Occidental beats hiding in Treasuries. x.comÂ
Natural gas leaders such as EQT face a structural shift, because about 20% of world supply is offline for three to five years with no quick fix. De-escalation doesn't change that, so market fakeouts should create opportunities in the group, with EQT attractive below $60. x.comÂ
