US crude and Chevron face a potential domestic glut: supertanker export costs are said to have risen from $8 million to $80 million, pushing Asian and European buyers toward Saudi and South American oil. Limited US refining capacity could leave the surplus unused and bankrupt smaller producers, though the author still says earlier exports caused a shortage. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Crude oil's latest drop reflects real Gulf export capacity coming back, which erodes Iran's Hormuz leverage. Saudi Arabia resumed loadings at Yanbu, with the East-West Pipeline at 2-2.65m barrels a day and seen by Kpler rising to 3-4m soon. Saudi and UAE shuttle tankers under US escort have restored at least 60% of pre-war flows. The risk: Qatar's mediation is stuck, per Axios, and a squeezed Iran may escalate against ports, refineries, pipelines or Red Sea shipping. x.com 

Tanker companies such as International Seaways, Teekay Tankers, Nordic American, Okeanis Eco, DHT and Scorpio Tankers are a boring, underrated sector nobody talks about. Tankers are an absolute necessity, and while not a glamorous business like AI, they still produce great returns. x.com 

Crude's risk premium should keep shrinking as Strait of Hormuz shipping resumes. Per Reuters, oil and LNG tankers are exiting the strait bound for Pakistan and China, and every tanker that clears takes a little more risk premium out of the price. x.com 

Okeanis Eco Tankers looks cheap against its earnings. It trades at 8x trailing and about 15x next year's earnings, versus the roughly 19x shipping operators usually get. Fair value is $99.15 to $126.19, based on 19x next year's $5.93 EPS, give or take 12%, which puts the stock about 12% below the low end. The case leans on forecasts, since forward earnings are 45% above trailing. Above $154.18 it would be expensive. x.com 

Canadian heavy crude is no longer captive to US refiners now that the Trans Mountain Expansion ships it to Asia, narrowing Western Canadian Select discounts and locking in long-haul Pacific tanker routes. About 77% of Westridge exports now go to Asia as buyers diversify from Middle East risk. MEG Energy has the most leverage to narrower heavy discounts; Canadian Natural, Cenovus and Suncor gain via pipeline capacity and Asian trading desks; Teekay Tankers and Frontline via Pacific vessel demand. … Show more

Crude oil should fall back into the $60s and likely well below over time once the Iran war is resolved. Middle East producers are overproducing but cannot export the barrels, so when the Strait fully reopens they will flood the market. Oil tried to break down from its trend line but was rejected, and bigger resolution news is likely needed to push it much lower. Cheaper oil would remove current inflation fears, setting up a deflationary boom. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil is headed for heavy oversupply within two years, so the market will look through any short-term supply squeeze. Near-term tightness can still move prices meaningfully, but the market believes there is no real long-term supply problem, which may be why oil equities are not trading at the premium bulls expect. Respect what the market is saying rather than insisting crude should be $250 a barrel. x.com  x.com 

Near-daily tanker attacks are keeping the oil glut away, with UKMTO issuing another maritime warning. x.com 

Crude oil faces a return of the glut. Per @JavierBlas, the IEA's first look at 2027 sees too much oil again by this time next year, as Hormuz is expected to reopen, though the agency warns of higher-than-normal uncertainty in its supply and demand forecasts. x.com