Bill 'Latency Lord' Brennan
Fundamental Growth Investor, B2B/Sector Leaders & Picks-and-Shovels
Nvidia's record buyback shows a company confident in its future cash flows. Per a quoted post, Nvidia authorized a $150 billion buyback, the largest single increase in US corporate history, while Jensen Huang called the current cycle the largest infrastructure buildout in human history. x.comÂ
Nvidia is a better buy than beaten-down tech names because it trades at a far lower PEG while still growing fast. It trades at 23x earnings and 14x next year's, not 45x, and is even cheaper on EBIT. Names like The Trade Desk, PayPal and Adobe trade at low multiples for a reason: their future cash flows will barely grow, and they have disappointed for years without a catalyst for change. Other semis and AppLovin also offer high growth at low PEGs. x.comÂ
Nvidia is becoming a share cannibal at a $5T market cap as it accelerates buybacks and dividends. Its new $150B buyback brings its total authorization to $235B, the largest ever. x.com x.comÂ
NVIDIA's record buyback signals management sees the stock as undervalued and buying it as a good use of cash. It announced a new $150 billion authorization, bringing the total to $235 billion, with its market cap above $5.5 trillion. x.comÂ
Nvidia's $150 billion buyback is immaterial and cannot provide a floor under the stock. Against a $5 trillion market cap it is about 3% over roughly two years, under 2% a year, whereas Apple's $100 billion buyback came when its market cap was about $900 billion. Stock-based compensation and the size of insider sales over the last year offset it further. Nvidia remains a remarkable company. x.com x.comÂ
Nvidia's rising revenue alongside a much lower P/E is getting hard to ignore. Its chart shows quarterly revenue above $80 billion in Q2 2026 while the P/E is around 30x, down from much higher multiples in prior years. x.comÂ
Nvidia's cash could have more value invested in AI companies with strong demand but too little capital to scale, especially neoclouds that can execute. Their valuations look very attractive now, making equity stakes preferable to more buybacks or dividends despite criticism of circular deals. SpaceX may need the money less because it is already very big. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Nvidia's equity-investment book makes earnings vulnerable to an AI valuation downturn even if GPU sales hold up. Private and public stakes totaled about $99bn, or 31% of assets, in July; gains were $15.9bn in April and $7.8bn in July. Private holdings are marked on observable transactions or impairments, so losses could arrive in lumps. Nvidia generated about $127bn of free cash flow over four quarters, and the filing does not split private stakes by sector. x.com x.comÂ
Nvidia's next move is being underestimated while attention is on Meta as the Magnificent Seven all-time-high candidate. Nvidia has increased its record buyback authorization to $235 billion into fiscal 2028, just as the stock breaks out from a year-long range. x.comÂ
Nvidia's stock is too cheap for Jensen Huang to ignore, which is why the company announced the largest stock buyback ever. x.comÂ
Nvidia's $14 billion purchase of Hugging Face deepens a conglomerate discount that has been building. The business may be getting more insulated, but it is also getting harder to understand, which could add to the stock's lack of a multiple premium. This is a caution rather than an outright bearish call. x.comÂ
Nvidia looks interesting again because rising earnings estimates have not been reflected in its valuation. FY28 EPS estimates rose about 25% in 60 days while shares stayed roughly flat; it trades below 14 times FY28 earnings with a mid-single-digit free-cash-flow yield. Exponential change is hard to grasp, and it is hard to see Nvidia not winning if the US does, though there is little capital to absorb market wobbles. x.com x.comÂ
